Warmer and sunnier with light winds

Wednesday Weather 3-9-22

 

 

 

Victoria, Texas-:  Today: Mostly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 64 degrees. winds: NE 5-10 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  Low: 40 degrees. Winds: NE 5 mph.  10% chance of scattered showers and possible thunderstorms.

Thursday: Mostly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 72 degrees. Winds: SE 5-10 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 55 degrees. Winds: NE 5-10 mph.  10% chance of scattered showers and possible thunderstorms.

Extended Forecast: Friday through Wednesday: 

Friday: Mostly cloudy skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 60/32 degrees. Winds: N 5-10 mph increasing to 20-25/G30 mph.  A 60% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday: Sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 57/35 degrees. Winds: N 10-15/G20 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday: Sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay below average. High: 68/50 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Monday: Mostly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 78/51 degrees. Winds: SW 15 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday: Sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 76/51 degrees. Winds: NE 10 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 78/58 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Synopsis: The light rain tapered off yesterday (Tuesday) afternoon while cloud cover gradually decreased from west to east.  A disturbance passed through the area last night but with limited available moisture the only (isolated) showers that took place were over the Gulf waters.

High pressure continues to move into the area on Wednesday while delivering sunshine (more cloud clearing) and warmer temperatures (60’s and 70’s). The caveat is that mostly clear skies for Wednesday night will allow temperatures to cool into the upper 30’s to upper 40’s.

For the long-term period, Thursday through Tuesday, temperatures will continue to warm through Thursday, but another cold front will push down into South Texas on Friday. The front should move through the area on Friday afternoon but if it speeds up then the cold front could arrive earlier in the day on Friday.

The approaching front will bring colder, dry air that will undercut (out ahead of the front) the Gulf moisture (limited amounts around 1″) creating light, isolated, rain showers.

Rain chances will increase through the afternoon on Friday when the cold front passes through the area with more cold air undercutting the warmer Gulf moisture at the 300 mb/30,000 feet level.  Limited sun energy should keep rain on the light side due to the weak instability or a more stable atmosphere.  The cold, dry air moving in behind the front will help clear skies, and further stabilize the atmosphere.

The pull-on surrounding systems, combined with temperature changes will lead to strong winds out of the north that could be strong enough for Wind Advisory Conditions with even stronger winds over the water (Gale Force 39-54 mph).  The winds could lead to Elevated Fire Weather as well depending on quickly the dry air moves in behind the front.

The clear skies Friday night (due to high pressure) could allow temperatures to drop into the 30’s, with some areas away from the water reaching or falling below freezing (32 degrees).

The strong winds out of the north (from Victoria to the coast) could drop wind chill temperatures into the 20’s Friday night/Saturday morning, which would prompt Wind Chill Advisories.  Saturday night will be another cold one as inland locations could see freezing temperatures once again.

By Sunday, airflow out of the south/southeast (Gulf) returns, and a gradual warming will take place early next week.  So, the cool down like most of the winter will be short-lived.