Warm, hazy and breezy as Heat Index Temperatures approach 105 degrees

Tuesday Weather 6-14-22

 

Victoria, Texas-: Today Partly sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 94 degrees. Winds: SE 10-15 mph increasing to SE 15-20/G30 mph.  Widespread haze due to the Saharan Dust.  Heat Index Temperatures will be near 105 degrees.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay above average.  Low: 78 degrees. Winds: SE 15-20/G25 mph decreasing to SE 10-15 mph after Midnight.  Widespread haze due to the Saharan Dust.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday:  Partly sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 94 degrees. Winds: SW 10-15/G20 mph.  Widespread haze due to the Saharan Dust.  Heat Index Temperatures will be near 105 degrees.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms before 1 pm.
Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 76 degrees. Winds: SE 5-15/G20 mph.  Widespread haze due to the Saharan Dust.  A10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Extended Forecast: Thursday through Tuesday: 

Thursday: Mostly sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 97/74 degrees. Winds: SE 5-15/G20 mph.  Widespread haze due to the Saharan Dust.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Friday: Sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 98/74 degrees. Winds: SE 10-15 mph.  Widespread haze due to the Saharan Dust before 1 pm.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday: Mostly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 97/74 degrees. Winds: E 15 mph.  Widespread haze due to the Saharan Dust.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms after 1 pm.
Sunday:  Mostly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 98/76 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph.  Widespread haze due to the Saharan Dust.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
MondayMostly sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 97/77 degrees. Winds: SE 20 mph.  Widespread haze due to the Saharan Dust. A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
 
Tuesday: Mostly sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 97/76 degrees. Winds: SE 20 mph.  Widespread haze due to the Saharan Dust. A 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Synopsis: High-pressure will continue to keep the area dry during the short-term period.  There are a couple of scenarios that could lead to some rain showers though.  The sun’s energy will be east of a low-pressure system in west Texas on Tuesday morning.  On Tuesday night fast upper-level winds will be near the coast while moisture levels increase to near 2″.  This could allow for the sun’s energy to strike up some showers near the coast between 1 am and 7 am on Wednesday morning. 

The high will remain somewhat stationary while storms move across the Rocky Mountains on Tuesday.  Red Flag Warnings could continue in South Texas until 8 pm or 11 pm (breezy until 11 pm) on Tuesday night.  Humidity values will not reach the criteria for Elevated Fire Weather by 8 pm on Tuesday.

Heat Indices were over 100 degrees on Monday, and they are expected to be between 105-109 degrees on Tuesday.  

 
For the long-term period, Wednesday through Monday,  storms will move northwest as high pressure moves back in from the east.  Showers could start up Wednesday morning, but the storm CAP/LID more than likely will keep the area dry.  Rain chances will lessen as the day progresses on Wednesday as the LID strengthens. 

High pressure in Colorado tugging on high pressure in the southeastern portion of the U.S. will pull winds and airflow out of the Gulf (south) in the lower levels.  This will keep hot and humid conditions through the work week and into the weekend for South Texas.  

 
Storms moving in from the east could move into the high (southern edge of the high), bringing some showers to South Texas over the weekend.  

Saharan Dust (plumes)
 could cause allergens as well as hot, hazy,
muggy conditions to become worse as the dust remains in the region through the week.  A definite drop in air quality that could impact sensitive groups.  
 
During the middle of the week there is the potential for minor coastal flooding on Gulf facing beaches due to the airflow out of the south (southeast). 
 
Tropical Weather Update: (10 percent chance over the next 48-hours, 40 percent chance over the next 5-days).  In the Southwestern Caribbean Sea there is a broad area of disturbed weather associated with a surface trough of low-pressure.  Some slow development is possible along with the formation of a tropical depression later in the week if the system remains over water.  The storm is expected to move northwestward toward the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras during that time period.  Whether the storm strengthens or not, the disturbance will produce periods of heavy rainfall across portions of eastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras later in the week. 
 

It is too early to determine what impacts may occur for South Texas.