Tracking the tropics on Monday 9-27-21

Hurricane Sam becomes the 4th Major Hurricane of the season


Hurricane Sam is now a Major Category 3 Hurricane with winds at 125 mph (938 mb pressure) but is not likely to hit land (landfall) as the Jet Stream steer’s the storm further west into the Atlantic.  Sam is moving northwest at 7 miles per hour (moving northward as well), but if the Jet Stream dips or moves further west or even meanders westward, then there is room for Sam to get very close to the U.S. next weekend.  Even if Sam remains east of the U.S. late this week through next weekend, seas (could rise) along the Atlantic coast from central Florida to Maine with building surf and increasing rip currents. Th storm as of Sunday night was located roughly 880 miles to the east southeast of the Leeward Islands in the northeastern Caribbean Sea.  Hurricane-force winds are extending out up to 30 miles from the center of the storm, and tropical-storm force winds were moving up to 90-miles from the center.  Sunday’s reports and data expect Sam to remain a major hurricane for several days.

An un-organized low-pressure storm (moving westward at 5-10 mph) is developing several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Favorable atmospheric conditions should allow this storm to become a depression (20-70 percent chance over the next 2-5 days) by the middle of the week.

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa today (Monday).  Weak upper-level winds should allow this wave to become a tropical depression (20-70 percent chance over the next 2-5 days) in a few days as the system moves westward to west northwestward at 10-15 mph over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.