The potential for strong storms

Tuesday Weather 4-12-22

 

 

Victoria, Texas-:  TodayEarly clouds with a gradual clearing (mostly sunny skies) with breezy winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 84 degrees. Winds: S 15-20/G30 mph.  A 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday Night: Increasing clouds (mostly cloudy) with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 71 degrees. Winds: SE 20/G30 mph.  20% chance of scattered showers and possible thunderstorms before 11 pm.

Wednesday: AM clouds with PM sun (partly sunny skies) with breezy winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 89 degrees. Winds: S 15/G20 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 61 degrees. Winds: NE 5-15 mph.  10% chance of scattered showers and possible thunderstorms.

Extended Forecast: Thursday through Tuesday: 

Thursday: Sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 85/64 degrees. Winds: SE 10-15/G20 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Friday: Mostly cloudy skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 84/68 degrees. Winds: SE 10-15/G20 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms after 1 pm.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 87/68 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday:
Partly sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 88/65 degrees. Winds: SE 20.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Monday: Partly cloudy skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 86/57 degrees. Winds: NE 15.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 81/58 degrees. Winds: NE 15 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Synopsis: A disturbance along with fast moving (35-45 mph) upper-level winds moved through the Crossroads again Monday night.  Stored energy from the sun moving out of the southwest (towards the northeast) could trigger some showers in the area before the sun comes up on Tuesday morning.

The sun will create some more showers that will move across South Texas on Tuesday afternoon, with most of the rain moving offshore out over the Gulf later in the afternoon.

Another group of rain showers will develop later in the afternoon and into the evening on Tuesday (7 pm to 1 am).  These showers will taper off later into Tuesday evening/night.

The Storm Prediction Center is suggesting a Marginal Risk for severe weather in the northeastern portion of the viewing area on Tuesday.  If storms develop, and overcome the storm CAP, then they could become very strong (severe).

Even with the rain chances, humidity levels will be low enough, the fuels will be dry, winds will be gusty enough and temperatures will be hot enough to lead to elevated fire weather concerns on Tuesday.  High temperatures on Tuesday will be near 90 degrees on the beach, and into the 100’s further west while overnight temperatures stay in the 60’s and 70’s.

For the long-term period, Wednesday through Monday, low pressure storms will move through the Central Plains, keeping winds on the breezy side through Tuesday night.
Storms and troughs will move through the Central Plains on Wednesday, this will push a dryline boundary into the Crossroads during this time. The dry air behind the boundary will drop humidity levels down between 20-40 percent on Wednesday.  This drop could promote critical fire weather for the rest of the week as winds pick up behind the dryline.

After temperatures warm into the 80’s, 90’s and 100’s out west on Tuesday and Wednesday, a cold front will move through (catching up to the dryline and the dryline may move back towards the northwest or even become absorbed by the cold front) South Texas on Wednesday night (Thursday morning).  The intrusion of cooler air will keep temperatures in the lower 80’s and nights in the lower 60’s for a day or two.

Due to the dry nature of the atmosphere, combined with a storm CAP, not a lot of rain can be expected with the passage of this front.

A warm front will move up from the south on Thursday, and a disturbance/trough from the west will move into South Texas on Friday.  This movement has as a chance to bring rain showers to the area each day.

High pressure will move into South Texas to kick off the weekend.  Sunshine, clear skies and pushing down of the atmosphere should warm temperatures back up into the 90’s and 100’s further west.