The dry weather and warm up does not look to last too long

Wednesday Weather 11-23-22

 

Victoria, Texas-: Tonight: Cloudy skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay above average.  Low: 61 degrees. Winds: E 5.  40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly. Less than 1/10″ of rain.  Patchy fog after 5 am.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 75/55 degrees. Winds: SW 5 mph.  A 60% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms after Noon.  Patchy fog before 8 am.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay above average.  Low: 61 degrees. Winds: N 5-15.  60% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms mostly before Midnight.

Extended Forecast: Friday through Thursday:

Friday: Partly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 62/44 degrees. Winds: NW 10-15/G20 mph.  A 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday: Sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 65/48 degrees. Winds: W 10-15/G20 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday: Sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 71/56 degrees. Winds: SW 10 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Monday: Partly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 79/65 degrees. Winds: SE 10 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 80/64 degrees. Winds: S 15 mph.  A 40% chance of scattered showers and AM thunderstorms.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 74/51 degrees. Winds: NW 15 mph.  A 40% chance of AM scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 64/53 degrees. Winds: NE 10 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms after 1 pm.

Synopsis: Storms moving down from the Plains will push a cold front towards South Texas on Thursday.  This will increase rain chances and could cause flooding on Gulf facing beaches.  Daytime heating from the sun combined with lift from the boundaries could trigger some thunderstorms on Tuesday.  Severe weather with storms producing damaging winds as well as winds causing flooding are concerns.

For the long term, Friday through Tuesday, Friday and Friday night could see areas of heavy rainfall.  A storm should pass from west to northeast through the central portion of the state on Friday.  That will keep showers going into the storms move out of the area (continuing northeast) over the weekend.  The storm combined with moisture, and moisture running into moisture (lift) will keep scattered showers going through Friday and Friday night.  Most of the instability will be over the open waters so thunderstorm activity will mostly stay over the water on Friday.  Due to the slow nature of the boundary or in other words the cold front moving at a slow pace.  This action will help to increase rainfall with Wednesday to Friday totals potentially reaching 3″ of rain in some spots.

Winds will strengthen on Friday as the boundary starts to clear the area.  The boundary will drop moisture levels as well, which could lead to elevated fire weather as the winds spike up.  Passage of the cold front should allow fro dry conditions over the weekend.  Scattered showers could hang around but mostly the weekend will look at dry sunny conditions with temperatures starting to warm while winds could be a tad breezy.  Temperatures start to warm for the work week as temperatures could rise into the 80’s.

Storms in the Southern Plains could help to pull moisture in from the southeast (Gulf) at the the end of the weekend, thus further bringing warm air into South Texas.  Rain chances from this moisture will increase Monday night,  with scattered shower potential continuing into next weekend.

Tropical Update:  There are no weather features over the next 48-hours.