Temperatures near 105 degrees with the heat index value along with Saharan Dust haze

Wednesday Weather 6-15-22

 

Victoria, Texas-: Today Partly sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 95 degrees. Winds: SE 10-15/G25 mph.  Widespread haze due to the Saharan Dust.  Heat Index Temperatures will be near 105 degrees.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 76 degrees. Winds: SE 5-15/G25 mph.  Widespread haze due to the Saharan Dust.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: Mostly sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 98 degrees. Winds: SE 5-10 mph.  Widespread haze due to the Saharan Dust.  Heat Index Temperatures will be near 106 degrees. A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 74 degrees. Winds: SE 10-15 mph.  Widespread haze due to the Saharan Dust.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Extended ForecastFriday through Wednesday: 

Friday: Sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 96/74 degrees. Winds: SE 5-10 mph.  Widespread haze due to the Saharan Dust.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday: Mostly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 97/74 degrees. Winds: SE 5-10 mph.  Widespread haze due to the Saharan Dust.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms after 1 pm.

Sunday:  Mostly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 98/75 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph.   A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Monday: Mostly sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 97/77 degrees. Winds: SE 20 mph.  Widespread haze due to the Saharan Dust. A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 96/75 degrees. Winds: SE 20 mph. A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 98/75 degrees. Winds: SE 20 mph. A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Synopsis: There is a trough in northeastern Mexico that will move towards South Texas over the next couple of days.  The feature will bring spin and lift bringing 15-20 mph winds through Wednesday night.  The mixing from the wind could keep overnight temperatures (in the 80’s) from dropping hardly at all.

Meanwhile, moisture from the Gulf (moisture near 2″ in the southwestern Gulf) continues to move into South Texas.  Even though moisture levels will increase in the Crossroads on Wednesday, warmer upper air temperatures and pushing down from the weather feature (trough, inverted) will create a CAP/LID on the atmosphere that will limit or stifle rain activity.

Never count out an isolated shower or a thunderstorm or two this time of year, but it would be short not lasting very long with the CAP in place.  The moisture and sun will push heat indices again into the 105–109-degree range with good chances of staying below 110 degrees on Wednesday.

For the long-term period, Thursday through Tuesday, high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will move back west and towards Texas, while high pressure from the east moves back towards the Great Plains and the Southern Plains as well.  By early next week, the high will move back over the Southeast U.S.

Disturbances will move into South Texas (the southern edge of the high) over the weekend as moisture levels approach 2″.  Rain chances will be near 20 percent, while there is an 80 percent chance the high keeps rain at bay (stifled).

Monday night through Tuesday, upper level fast moving winds will move through South Texas.  This spike in winds combined with the high moisture levels could bring showers and thunderstorms to the Gulf, while there could be some spillage further inland as well Tuesday or Wednesday.

High pressure will continue to pull moisture out of the Gulf (east) but could change winds to out of the east over the weekend as the high moves closer to the area and to the north of the Crossroads.

Heat Indices will range from 105-109 degrees for most of the week, with 110 degrees being a possibility at times.

Avoid heat related illnesses by staying indoors staying hydrated.

Saharan Dust (plumes) could cause allergens as well as hot, hazy, muggy conditions to become worse as the dust remains in the region through Saturday morning.  A definite drop in air quality that could impact sensitive groups.

Tropical Weather Update: (30 percent chance over the next 48-hours, 40 percent chance over the next 5-days).  In the Southwestern Caribbean Sea there is a broad area of disturbed weather associated with a surface trough of low-pressure bringing disorganized shower and thunderstorms.  

Some slow development is possible along with the formation of a tropical depression later in the eek if the system remains over water.  The storm is expected to move northwestward toward the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras during this time period.  Whether the storm strengthens or not, the disturbance will produce periods of heavy rainfall across portions of eastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras later in the week.  

It is too early to determine what impacts may occur for South Texas.