Temperatures fall as well as the rain for Thanksgiving Thursday

Thursday Weather 11-25-21

 

VICTORIA, Texas-: Todaon Thanksgiving: Cloudy skies with breezy winds while temperatures staying around average before they drop.  High: 71 degrees. Winds: SE 5-10 switching to the N 15-20/G25 mph.  A 90% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms after 7 am. Rain totals will be around 1/2″ to 3/4″ but higher where thunderstorms are present.  Temperatures will warm to 71 degrees by 9 am but then dropping to 57 degrees.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay below average.  Low: 45 degrees. Winds: N 15/G25 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Friday: Partly cloudy skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 62 degrees. Winds: N 5-15 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 47 degrees. Winds: NE 5 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Extended Forecast: Saturday through Thursday:

Saturday: Cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 58/49 degrees. Winds: NE 5 mph.  A 40-60% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday: Partly cloudy skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 65/44 degrees. Winds: N 15 mph.  A 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Monday: Mostly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 67/44 degrees. Winds: NW 5 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday: Partly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 71/49 degrees. Winds: NE 5 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 73/53 degrees. Winds: NE 5 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: Partly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 77/56 degrees. Winds: SE 10 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Synopsis: The trough stretching from the Southwest Rocky Mountains to Northern Baja, California separated into a low-pressure system near the Sea of Cortez (Gulf of California). The rest of the trough will head west to east on Thursday into the Upper Midwest. The low will be near the spur of Baja, CA by Thursday.

The low-pressure system over the Southern High Plains brought 30-35 mph low-level winds and gusts across South Texas on Wednesday.

The trough from the Midwest to the Mid-Mississippi River Valley continues to the east through the Great Lakes while pushing the cold front in Texas south through the area Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

The front should breach the northern portion of the Crossroads by late Thursday (Thanksgiving) morning and should reach the coast by the middle of Thursday afternoon.

Moisture (low-level) from the south will continue to move up out of the Gulf thus increasing moisture levels (above 1.5″) Wednesday night and Thursday morning.  This warm air and moisture should bring some scattered streamer showers over coastal locations Wednesday night and Thursday morning with possible thunderstorms Wednesday night (due to stored energy from the sun).

As the cold front pushes through Thursday morning then moisture levels will approach 2″ while stored energy from the sun starts to trigger some showers.  This moisture, energy and scattered showers will push south through the viewing area with the cold front on Thursday morning.

Thanksgiving will be breezy and rainy as 70-degree temperatures drop into the 60’s during the day as the cold front pushes through the area.  The heaviest rain will be over the Gulf waters, but inland locations could still see 1-2″ of rain while thicker moisture plumes and training could bring higher totals to localized areas.

In the long term for the extended period, days 3 to 7, Thursday night through Tuesday, the colder, breezy air will continue to move into the Crossroads on Thursday night.  Showers and thunderstorms will taper off as the front pushes off from north to southeast through Thursday night.

Remnant moisture could keep some showers going on Friday along the coast, over the Gulf waters and a few sprinkles inland as well.

The trough in the Midwest will start to break up Thursday and Friday while the northern part of the trough lifting off to the northeast.

High pressure will move into South Texas on Friday.  The low-pressure system over Baja, California will create airflow out of the southwest that will flow into South Texas on Saturday.

A trough will develop along the coast on Saturday as some storm energy moves northeast across South Texas.

Low-level airflow out of the south will start to push more moisture back into South Texas Saturday night into Sunday (1.5″).  This moisture could lift over the ground airmass producing cloudy skies and more rain showers.

Thursday’s cold front will drop temperatures as Thursday and Friday night lows will drop into the 40’s and 50’s.  Friday and Saturday will see high temperatures in the 60’s while under cloudy skies.

Air will move out of the north due to high pressure on Sunday.  This airflow out of the north will keep temperature highs in the 60’s Sunday and Monday while rain chances stay around 20 to 30 percent on Sunday and Monday.

A return of airflow out of the Gulf (south) on Monday night and Tuesday will increase temperatures as well as rain chances.

Tropics: There will not be any tropical storm activity over the next 48- hours.