Sunny but more showers later in the week

Tuesday Weather 10-25-22

 

Victoria, Texas-: Tonight: Clear skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 48 degrees. Winds: N 5.  10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday: Sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 80 degrees. Winds: E 5-10 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night: Clear skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 55 degrees. Winds: N 5.  10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Extended
Forecast: Thursday through Wednesday:

Thursday: Sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 81/65 degrees. Winds: SE 5-10 mph.  A 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Friday: Mostly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 79/53 degrees. Winds: NW 10-15/G20 mph.  A 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday: Sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 72/51 degrees. Winds: NW 15 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday: Sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 75/53 degrees. Winds: NW 5 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Monday: Sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 79/60 degrees. Winds: SE 10 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 85/68 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday: Partly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 87/68 degrees. Winds: S 15 mph.  A 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Synopsis: High pressure has moved in behind the passing front that brought 3/4″ of rain strong winds and rain last night.  Now the area is under light winds, dry, cooler air with lots of daytime sunshine.  On Wednesday high pressure will start moving off to the east allowing for airflow out of the east/southeast (Gulf).  A return of the warm Gulf air will do just that.  This movement will elevate temperatures.

For the long term, Thursday through Monday, disturbances will move into Texas on Thursday night and by Friday night those disturbances will turn into a low-pressure storm.  Before the storms move down a cold front will drop down into South Texas sometime Friday morning/afternoon.  Moisture levels ahead of the front will increase to around 1.5″.  Stored moisture from the sun combined with the moisture could bring showers overnight Thursday into Friday as the front moves down creating some additional lift.  Thunderstorm chances will be best along the coast (and over the Gulf waters) while further inland opposing forces could be strong enough to CAP (or LID) the stronger storms.  High pressure with cooler, drier air move into South Texas thus eliminating the unstable air and rain chances.  Lowered humidity levels and the dry air (light winds) could cause fire weather concern but the winds might be on the weaker side.  If winds pick up a little bit then the fire weather concerns could increase.  After the weekend a warming trend will ensue her in South Texas.

For the long term, Wednesday through Sunday, high pressure will move into the area on Wednesday which will allow sunshine and warmer temperatures.  A storm in the Rocky Mountains on Wednesday, will move into the Plains of west Texas on Thursday night.  The storms will continue through north Texas on Friday moving to the state line of Arkansas, Louisiana and Texas by Friday night.  This movement as well as airflow out of the southeast (Gulf)will increase moisture levels to South Texas (1.5″ range and below average slightly).  Daytime heating from the sun will create some unstable air on Thursday night ahead of the next cold front that could lead to showers Thursday night and Friday morning.  Drier air will move in as the front moves off Friday night while high pressure moves closer. Temperatures could stay 10 degrees below average on Saturday as temperatures stay cooler over the weekend, while winds stay on the breezy side.  These dry conditions combined with the winds (low relative humidity 25-30 percent) could be a concern for fire weather.

Tropical Update: A storm 70 miles north of Bermuda is moving into cooler water and strong upper-level winds which will hinder development of this system.  A 20 percent chance for further development.

Another storm near Turks and Caicos is strengthening a little bit in the tropical waters but the storm will move north into some upper-level winds that could weaken the storm before moving north but staying a little bit west of Bermuda.