Strong storms are headed towards the Crossroads

Sunday Weather 10-23-22

 

Victoria, Texas-: Tonight : Mostly cloudy skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 74 degrees. Winds: SE 10-15/G20.  10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Monday: Mostly cloudy skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 82/61 degrees. Winds: S 10-15/G20 mph.  A 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. A possible alert day for strong storms as the boundary moves closer.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 61 degrees. Winds: SE 15-20/G25.  80% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.  A possible alert as the boundary moves through Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Extended
Forecast: Tuesday through Monday:

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 76/51 degrees. Winds: NW 15-20/G25 mph.  A 80% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms before 7 am.  A possible alert day for severe weather as the boundary moves through the area.

Alert Day

Wednesday: Sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 80/54 degrees. Winds: NE 10 mph.  A 10% chance of AM scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: Mostly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 82/67 degrees. Winds: SE 10 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Friday: Partly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 79/55 degrees. Winds: W 10 mph.  A 60% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday: Partly cloudy skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 74/51 degrees. Winds: NW 15 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday: Sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 79/53 degrees. Winds: NW 5 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Monday: Mostly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 81/58 degrees. Winds: SE 10 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Synopsis: Breezy winds (25-35 mph) kicked up on Sunday but should lessen overnight before picking up again on Monday as a cold front moves closer from the northwest.  That front should move in Monday afternoon/evening and clearing the area by 2-3 am on Tuesday morning.  There is a slight risk for severe weather on Monday evening as the front brings showers along the boundary.  The severe threat comes with strong winds, rain and large hail (.75″ or greater).  We will not rule out heavy rainfall but it looks like the front will move through quickly enough to keep the rates and totals at a minimum. Rip currents could be strong along with coastal flooding that should end when winds move out of  (switch to) the north with the cold front.  Tuesday could see highs in the 70’s and lows in the 50’s after the cold front moves through.

For the long term, Tuesday through Saturday, the front will bring cooler, breezier air but temperatures will start to rise on Wednesday with ample sunshine.  Airflow out of the Gulf (southeast) will begin to return to South Texas, thus increasing moisture levels.  The moisture will keep moving in increasing moisture levels, while another cold front pushes through the area Friday morning bringing more rain to the area.  Cooler air will display the temperatures on Saturdays as highs stay in the mid 70’s.

For the long term, Friday through Thursday, high pressure will keep calm conditions right through the weekend.  High pressure will drift to the east on Friday, while disturbances/storms will push through the Plains. This movement will push a cold front through the Crossroads Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.  Moisture remnants from a tropical disturbance (from the Pacific) will combine with the cold front leading to showers and possible thunderstorms mostly over the eastern portion of the viewing area.  Slightly cooler temperatures will move in behind the front.

Tropical Update: Thee is a wave bringing disorganized showers and thunderstorms 500 miles east of Bermuda.  The storm is moving west northwest at 15-20 mph and should move near Bermuda on Monday night but will then lose power while moving into the cooler waters of the northern Atlantic Ocean.  Only a 10 percent chance of further development over the next 48-hours and 5-days.  The