Stormy weather for Thanksgiving

Thursday Weather 11-24-22

 

Victoria, Texas-: Tonight: Mostly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay above average.  Low: 57 degrees. Winds: NW 5-10.  60% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms after Midnight. Looking at 1/10″ to 1/4″ of rain but totals could be higher with thunderstorms.

Friday: Mostly cloudy skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 65 degrees. Winds: N 10-15 mph.  A 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 49 degrees. Winds: NW 10.  40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Extended Forecast: Saturday through Friday:

Saturday: Sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 65/48 degrees. Winds: W 10-15/G20 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday: Sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 73/53 degrees. Winds: SW 5-10 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Monday: Mostly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 75/64 degrees. Winds: SE 10 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday: Partly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 79/61 degrees. Winds: S 15 mph.  A 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday: Partly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 69/43 degrees. Winds: N 15 mph.  A 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: Partly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 59/48 degrees. Winds: NE 10 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Friday: Mostly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 66/56 degrees. Winds: NE 10 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms after.

Synopsis: Storms moving out of the northwest are bringing showers to the viewing area.  A storm near the New Mexico and Texas state line (currently bringing scattered showers to the area) will start to move west to east through the area Friday afternoon possibly exiting the Crossroads by Friday night.  That means scattered showers for the Crossroads for the next 36-hours.  Severe weather with storms producing damaging winds as well as winds causing flooding are concerns.

For the long term, Friday through Tuesday, Friday and Friday night could see areas of heavy rainfall.  A storm should pass from west to northeast through the central portion of the state on Friday.  That will keep showers going into the storms move out of the area (continuing northeast) over the weekend.  The storm combined with moisture, and moisture running into moisture (lift) will keep scattered showers going through Friday and Friday night.  Most of the instability will be over the open waters so thunderstorm activity will mostly stay over the water on Friday.  Due to the slow nature of the boundary or in other words the cold front moving at a slow pace.  This action will help to increase rainfall with Wednesday to Friday totals potentially reaching 3″ of rain in some spots.

Winds will strengthen on Friday as the boundary starts to clear the area.  The boundary will drop moisture levels as well, which could lead to elevated fire weather as the winds spike up.  Passage of the cold front should allow fro dry conditions over the weekend.  Scattered showers could hang around but mostly the weekend will look at dry sunny conditions with temperatures starting to warm while winds could be a tad breezy.  Temperatures start to warm for the work week as temperatures could rise into the 80’s.

Storms in the Southern Plains could help to pull moisture in from the southeast (Gulf) at the the end of the weekend, thus further bringing warm air into South Texas.  Rain chances from this moisture will increase Monday night,  with scattered shower potential continuing into next weekend.

Tropical Update:  There are no weather features over the next 48-hours.