Showers and cooler temperatures to kick off the work week

Monday Weather 6-27-22

 

 

 

Victoria, Texas-: TodayMostly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 98 degrees. Winds: NW 5-10 mph turning northeast.  A 60% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms after 11 am.  Could see 1/4″ to 1/10″ of rain.
Monday Night: Mostly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 73 degrees. Winds: NE 5-10 mph.  A 60% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 89 degrees. Winds: N 5-10 mph.  A 60% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 73 degrees. Winds: N 5-10 mph.  A 60% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms after Midnight.

Extended Forecast: Wednesday through Monday: 

Wednesday: Partly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 89/74 degrees. Winds: NE 10-15/G25 mph.  A 60% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
 
Thursday: Mostly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 90/76 degrees. Winds: NE 5-15/SE mph.  A  30% chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
 
Friday: Mostly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 91/77 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
 
Saturday: Mostly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 93/76 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
 
Sunday: Partly cloudy skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 96/76 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
 
Monday: Mostly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 98/77 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Synopsis: A disturbance moving through the area on Sunday combined with Gulf moisture moving into the area will increase overall moisture levels in South Texas.  The clouds will thin out later on Sunday as disturbances in the area move off to the west.  Heat Indices again were over 100 degrees on Sunday.  

For the long-term period,  Monday through Saturday, a cold front from the northwest should move into central Texas early Monday, and then should move over the viewing area by Monday afternoon.  Moisture levels will increase ahead of the front (2.0″) meeting up with unstable air from the daytime heating of the sun.  This could bring showers into the northeastern portion of the viewing area Monday afternoon and then to the rest of the viewing area later Monday evening (night). By Tuesday morning the front should move out over the Gulf.  This movement will trigger the development of a low-pressure system out over the northwest corner of the Gulf.  The moisture values will stay near 2″ as this storm moves back over the Crossroads Tuesday into Wednesday.  This scenario will bring more much needed rain to the area.   Friday and Saturday will be dry with hotter temperatures as heat indices range in the 105–109-degree range.  If conditions become hotter that heat advisories could be issued on Friday.

Tropical Update:  There are disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the northern Gulf off the coast of Alabama in Mississippi.  This disturbance of low-pressure will slowly move west towards Texas.  There is less than a 10 percent chance of further development over the next 48-hours but a 20 percent chance over the next 5-days.  There is a tropical wave 1,000 miles east southeast of the Windward Islands (Grenada).  Conditions look to be conducive for further development by th middle of the week with a 40 percent chance of further development over the next 48-hours but a 70 percent chance over the next 5-days. This storm will make its way towards the Windward Islands by Tuesday and over the southeastern Caribbean by Wednesday and Thursday.