Rain returning to the Crossroads.

Forecast Synopsis KAVU 11-20-22

 

Tonight: Cloudy skies. Rain chances increasing to 70% after midnight Low: 44

Winds: N 5-10 mph.

Monday: Rain chances 80%. High: 48 Low: 44

Winds:  N 10 mph.

Extended forecast: Tuesday through Sunday: A brief drier trend along with slightly warmer conditions begins on Tuesday. A few scattered, brief periods of rain are possible.  Skies will gradually scatter out from the northeast. Most of the Crossroads will enjoy a little more sunshine and slightly warmer temperatures. Highs from the upper 50s to low 60s will be possible. Overnight lows will be mostly in the 40s. Wednesday, A surface high will gradually expand over Texas, resulting in east to southeast winds and increasing onshore flow. Temperatures will climb into the 60s. Little to no precipitation is expected but mid to high clouds will return as weak disturbances aloft move through Wednesday night into the holiday weekend.  Travel around the state will be favorable.  A weak cold will move through our area during the day on Thanksgiving, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms activity diminishing through the day. As of now, periods of rain will be possible for Thanksgiving, but specific location of the heaviest rain and precipitation timing are still uncertain. Friday into Sunday, will be breezy to windy conditions behind the frontal boundary; thus expect a breezy holiday weekend.  Temperatures will strongly depend on how fast the system moves through the region. As of now, I’m leaning towards a warm Thanksgiving Day with highs from the mid-60s to low 70s. Keep in mind that this forecast could change as the system evolves over the next few days.

Synopsis:  Not much change to the long term forecast as models are in good agreement as upper-level trough transitions east of the region Tuesday but diverge with the handling of a mid-level low dropping out of Canada. The Canadian model keeps the low much further north over the Northern Plains while the GFS has the Canadian low converging with another weak low over the Desert SW. Both models have a front surging across South Texas but differ in timing from Thursday night to Friday afternoon. For now will stick with the ensemble models in regards to the low.  In the meantime, scattered showers will become isolated in coverage as we head through the work week through Thursday as isentropic lift in the 300-305K level combined with low-level moisture will help support showers.  Minor coastal flooding and strong rip currents will remain possible through the middle of the week due to moderate to strong NE flow, but expect the threat to diminish Thursday as flow shifts around from the north.  Daytime highs will start out cold in the 50s then gradually warm to around the low 70s by Thursday ahead of a cold front as subsidence aloft settles in. Lows will start out in the mid-40s and will warm to the upper 50s by early Thursday. Then after the next front, a slight cool down will be accompanied by drier conditions.

.-Scott