Rain chances stay slim as triple digit heat keeps put

Tuesday Weather 7-26-22

 

Victoria, Texas-: Tonight: Mostly clear skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 76 degrees. Winds: SE 5-15 mph becoming light after Midnight.  10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 95/76 degrees. Heat index temperatures will be near 106 degrees.  Winds: SE 10-15/G20 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms after 1 pm.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 76 degrees. Winds: SE 5-15/G20 mph.  10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: Mostly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 97 degrees. Winds: SE 10-15/G20 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms after 1 pm.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 77 degrees. Winds: SE 10-15/G20 mph becoming SE 5-10 after Midnight.  10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Extended Forecast: Friday through Wednesday: 

Friday: Mostly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 94/77 degrees. Winds: SE 10-15/G20 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.  

Saturday: Mostly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 96/75 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday: Mostly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 95/76 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Monday: Mostly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 96/76 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph.  A 40% chance of AM scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 97/76 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 97/76 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Synopsis: A low-pressure storm in eastern Mexico continues to move further to the west and away from South Texas.  This has allowed high-pressure to move down from the north.  Combine that with Gulf moisture moving in and conditions will remain hot and muggy with better odds (20 percent rain) of staying on the dry side.

Heat indices will stay in the triple digits and most likely under advisory conditions (less than 110 degrees).  The area saw elevated fire weather as winds picked up (30 mph gusts), humidity dropped while dry fuels stayed vulnerable yesterday.  Winds should lessen a bit today (Tuesday) which could keep the area out of elevated fire weather conditions.


For the long-term period, Wednesday through Monday, high-pressure over the Texas area should head into the Southeast part of the United States by the middle of the week.  South Texas will then be on the southwest edge of the high.  This change will open up the door for troughs and disturbances to move into the area from the Gulf on Wednesday.

 

The intrusions should bring moisture levels up close to normal (2.0″), add in daytime heating from the sun and moisture running into moisture creating lift and the area could see some scattered showers on Wednesday afternoon especially along the Seabreeze.

A trough moving into Mexico on Thursday could trigger showers in the increased moisture areas of South Texas.  That trough should move out of Mexico and into Texas on Friday.  Daytime heating from the sun could spike up some more isolated showers as the trough moves into the area on Friday.  High pressure from the north should make its way into Central Texas on Saturday, clearing out some of that moisture that moved in Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.  This will provide dry conditions for South Texas on Saturday.  Then, another trough moves into the area on Sunday.  Moisture will be limited and only some daytime heating from the sun creating a more unstable atmosphere will have an opportunity to deliver some rain showers if at all possible.  This trough will move west of the area on Monday, almost ensuring hot and dry conditions.  Later in the week (Thursday and Friday) heat indices will be in the 105-109 degrees range with some spots hitting 110 degrees with the real feel temperature.

We could see elevated fire weather from day to day as winds pick up (30 mph gusts along the Seabreeze), humidity’s drop (25-35 percent) while dry fuels stay vulnerable.

Tropical Weather Update: There is not any tropical storm

or hurricane activity expected over the next 48 hours.