Rain chances increasing next week.

Forecast Synopsis KAVU 8-27-22

Tonight: Party cloudy, 20% chance of scattered showers. Low: 76.

Winds: SE 10-15 mph.

Sunday: Partly Cloudy, 40% PM- chance of scattered thunderstorms. High: 93 Low: 76

Winds:  SE 15 mph.

Extended forecast: Monday through Saturday: Rain chances increase late Sunday as moisture increases in the area.  There may be a slight uptick in showers late Sunday into Monday, mostly along the coast.  A tropical wave, currently in the Bay of Campeche will move northwestward, bringing additional moisture to our area.  A frontal boundary will stall to our north the second half of the week and serve as a triggering mechanism for additional showers and thunderstorms.  Rain chances will remain at 60% through the period.  The National Hurricane Center is watching 1 tropical wave in the Atlantic which now has a 40% chance of forming into a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days.  Due to high moisture levels, afternoon heat index values will range from 105-109 with some higher values west of the Crossroads.  Winds will be generally SE 10-15.


Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that tropical moisture will

remain in place over the Crossroads providing enough energy to support

30-60 percent rain chances each day, Monday through Friday.

Meanwhile, ensemble guidance also indicates that two features will contribute

to periods of cyclonic vorticity advection in the area. First,

cyclonic vorticity associated with a tropical wave currently in the

vicinity of the Bay of Campeche is forecast to lift northwestward on

Monday. By Tuesday, as the cyclonic vorticity associated with this

system begins to diminish, additional cyclonic vorticity is forecast

to be sheared off of a shortwave trough digging into the Mississippi

River Valley and slowly progressing southward through the second half

of the week. The combination of above-normal moisture, conditional

instability, and mid-level support for ascent will result in 30%-

60+% rain chances each day next week

~ Scott