Possible showers again for Thursday

Thursday Weather 7-28-22

 

 

Victoria, Texas-: Tonight: Mostly clear skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 77 degrees. Winds: SE 5-15/G20 mph.  10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Friday: Mostly sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 94 degrees. Winds: SE 10-15/G20 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms after 1 pm.  

Friday Night: Mostly clear skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 77 degrees. Winds: SE 15-20/G25 mph becoming light after Midnight.  10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday: Mostly sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 95 degrees. Winds: SE 10-15/G20 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 75 degrees. Winds: SE 10-15 mph becoming light after Midnight.  10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Extended Forecast: Sunday through Friday: 

Sunday: Mostly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 94/76 degrees. Winds: Light becoming SE 10-15/G20 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Monday: Mostly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 93/77 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 94/77 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday: Sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 95/76 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: Mostly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 99/76 degrees. Winds: SE 10-15 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Friday: Partly cloudy skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 96/74 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph.  A 30% chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Synopsis: Moisture levels increased to around normal (2.0″) on Wednesday (yesterday) as a trough pushed into the area.  Combine that with high pressure moving further off to the east and some clouds (high level clouds) and thunderstorms fired up over the water and moved inland to the northeast of the viewing area.  The storms moved northwest and away from the Crossroads as nighttime cooling allowed for the storms to fizzle out.

The trough will move off to the west and out of the area on Thursday, but moisture will continue to move into the area through Thursday night.  Thursday will be similar to Wednesday as isolated scattered showers and thunderstorms and cloud development will be possible again with the moisture movement combined with lift from the Seabreeze and daytime heating from the sun.  The clouds and rain dropped temperatures by a few degrees compared to last week, but heat indices will still reach 105-109 degrees on Thursday.


We could see elevated fire weather Thursday as winds get breezy (20-30 mph gusts along the Seabreeze), humidity’s drop (25-35 percent) while dry fuels stay pre-heated and vulnerable in the constant heat.  Moisture levels are increasing but fires can start easily and could spread rapidly (getting out of control).


For the long-term period, Friday through Wednesday, the trough should move out of the Crossroads on Friday and sending the area back to dry, hot conditions. Not that hot ever left the area.  The increased moisture in the area could allow daytime heating from the sun to fire up some showers once again on Friday (even as the trough leaves the area).

The falling moisture levels should stop the sun’s daytime heating from firing up any showers though on Saturday.

Not so fast though as another trough will push into South Texas on Sunday/Monday from out of the Gulf.  The feature will move west to east into the area with more moisture than the last couple of events.  The next moisture increase again will allow for daytime heating from the sun to fire up some showers on Sunday/Monday.  This could spill over to Tuesday with the same conditions as well. 

Wednesday the area will see drier conditions with the potential for elevated fire weather as winds potentially get breezy (15-25 mph gusts along the Seabreeze), humidity’s drop (25-35 percent) while dry fuels stay pre-heated and vulnerable.

Tropical Weather Update: There is not any tropical storm

or hurricane activity expected over the next 48 hours.