Possible rain but heat indices will be near 105 degrees

Friday Weather 7-1-22

 

Victoria, Texas-: Today: Partly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 91 degrees. Winds: SE 10-15 mph.  A 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Heat Index Temperature 105 degrees.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 77 degrees. Winds: SE 10-15/G20 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. 

Saturday: Mostly sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 93 degrees. Winds: SE 5-15/G20 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Heat Index Temperature 106 degrees.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 77 degrees. Winds: SE 5-15/G20 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms after.

Extended Forecast: Sunday through Friday: 

 
Sunday: Mostly sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 94/77 degrees. Winds: SE 5-10 becoming SE 10-15/G20 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
 
Monday: Sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 94/77 degrees. Winds: SE 5-15/G20 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
 
TuesdaySunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 95/75 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
 
WednesdayMostly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 96/77 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
 
Thursday: Sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 96/76 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
 
Friday: Mostly sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 97/76 degrees. Winds: S 15 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Synopsis:  Low pressure systems are just east of the area over the water and that is where the unstable air is most prevalent from the Mexico/Texas border to the upper Texas coast. The low will move into the southeast Texas (the viewing area) sometime around Noon on Friday.  The upward lift from the low, moisture levels near 2″ combined with the Seabreeze will increase rain chances (30-40 percent) for Friday morning (7 am to 10 am time frame).

Drier air from the north will move into South Texas Friday night as low pressure moves off to the north (northeast).

For the long-term period,  Saturday through Thursday,  drier air and high pressure will move into South Texas over the weekend.  Lingering moisture could allow for some rain chances on Saturday (20 percent chance) due to collision (moisture and air collision) and upward pushes from the Seabreeze.

Moisture levels will decrease down to almost the 1.5″ range for much of the week.  The decreased moisture levels, drier air combined with the resurgence of high pressure and the area will remain dry with only a 20 percent chance here and there for a rogue shower or two.  Next week, moisture levels will increase, and this will start to add rain chances to the forecast once again.

The high will return South Texas to the dry, hot conditions that the area became accustomed to before the rain began on Monday.  The low-level moisture flow from the Gulf, combined with the increased temperatures should send heat indices back into the 105–109-degree range Saturday through Wednesday.   A few spots could briefly touch 110 degrees at times.

Tropical Update:  #1: A trough of low-pressure (in the northwestern Gulf) is slowly moving along and into the coast.  This feature could bring some rain to the area, but chances are on the down swing.  There is a 10 percent chance (or less) of further development in the next 48-hours to 5-days. 

#2: This low (1005 mb, 40 mph, west at 20 mph) is about to be named a tropical storm off of the coast of Colombia (to the northwest of).  The storm could strengthen if it moves into the Caribbean and stays away from land.  There is a 90 percent chance of further development in the next 48-hours to 5-days.  The storm should cross through Nicaragua, Panama and Costa Rica and move into the Pacific Ocean. Hurricane conditions are possible.  

#3: A tropical wave is bringing showers to areas a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands.  The system will move to the west and northwest the next couple of days.  By Friday the system will move over the Windward Islands, and then over the eastern Caribbean Sea by the Weekend.  The conditions are unfavorable for strengthening (wind shear) in the Caribbean due to toppling wind conditions.  There is a 10 percent chance of further development in the next 48-hours to 5-days.

Drier air from the north will move into South Texas Friday night as low pressure moves off to the north (northeast).

For the long-term period,  Saturday through Thursday,  drier air and high pressure will move into South Texas over the weekend.  Lingering moisture could allow for some rain chances on Saturday (20 percent chance) due to collision (moisture and air collision) and upward pushes from the Seabreeze.

Moisture levels will decrease down to almost the 1.5″ range for much of the week.  The decreased moisture levels, drier air combined with the resurgence of high pressure and the area will remain dry with only a 20 percent chance here and there for a rogue shower or two.  Next week, moisture levels will increase, and this will start to add rain chances to the forecast once again.

The high will return South Texas to the dry, hot conditions that the area became accustomed to before the rain began on Monday.  The low-level moisture flow from the Gulf, combined with the increased temperatures should send heat indices back into the 105–109-degree range Saturday through Wednesday.   A few spots could briefly touch 110 degrees at times.

Tropical Update:  #1: A trough of low-pressure (in the northwestern Gulf) is slowly moving along and into the coast.  This feature could bring some rain to the area, but chances are on the down swing.  There is a 10 percent chance (or less) of further development in the next 48-hours to 5-days. 

#2: This low (1005 mb, 40 mph, west at 20 mph) is about to be named a tropical storm off of the coast of Colombia (to the northwest of).  The storm could strengthen if it moves into the Caribbean and stays away from land.  There is a 90 percent chance of further development in the next 48-hours to 5-days.  The storm should cross through Nicaragua, Panama and Costa Rica and move into the Pacific Ocean. Hurricane conditions are possible.  

#3: A tropical wave is bringing showers to areas a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands.  The system will move to the west and northwest the next couple of days.  By Friday the system will move over the Windward Islands, and then over the eastern Caribbean Sea by the Weekend.  The conditions are unfavorable for strengthening (wind shear) in the Caribbean due to toppling wind conditions.  There is a 10 percent chance of further development in the next 48-hours to 5-days.