Not as windy today but heat indices again will be near 105 degrees with lots of sun

Thursday Weather 6-16-22

 

Victoria, Texas-: Today: Mostly sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 98 degrees. Winds: SE 5-15 mph.  Heat Indices will be around 105 degrees.  Widespread haze due to the Saharan Dust.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday Night: Mostly clear skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay above average.  Low: 78 degrees. Winds: SE 15-20/G25 mph decreasing to SE 5-15/G20 mph.  Widespread haze due to the Saharan Dust.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Friday: Mostly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 96 degrees. Winds: SE 10-15 mph.  Widespread haze due to the Saharan Dust before 1 pm.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms after 9 am.
Friday Night: Mostly clear skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 74 degrees. Winds: SE 10-15/G20 mph.  Widespread haze due to the Saharan Dust.  A10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Extended Forecast: Saturday through Tuesday:

Saturday: Sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 98 degrees. Winds: SE 10-15 mph.  Widespread haze due to the Saharan Dust.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday:  Sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 100/75 degrees. Winds: SE 10-15 mph.  Widespread haze due to the Saharan Dust.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Monday: Sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 99/76 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph.  Widespread haze due to the Saharan Dust. A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
 
Tuesday: Sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 95/75 degrees. Winds: SE 20 mph.  Widespread haze due to the Saharan Dust. A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday: Sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 96/75 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph.  Widespread haze due to the Saharan Dust.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: Partly cloudy skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 99/74 degrees. Winds: SE 20 mph.  Widespread haze due to the Saharan Dust.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Synopsis: Wednesday night became a little breezy from fast moving upper-level winds, but those winds moved off and winds decreased along with the sun’s energy disappearing after sunset.High pressure is beginning to strengthen and move closer to South Texas which will spell for more hot and dry conditions in the area on Thursday.  Heat indices will range from 105-109 degrees (daily through the forecast period) so remember to practice heat safety and limit time outdoors and stay hydrated.

Saharan Dust (plumes) could cause allergens as well as hot, hazy, muggy conditions to become worse as the dust remains in the region through Saturday morning.  A definite drop in air quality that could impact sensitive groups.  The haze could create some col pictures for sunrise and sunsets.

For the long-term period, Friday through Wednesday, high pressure (northeast of the area) over southeast Texas and the northern Gulf should control the rest of the forecast period.  The return of the Saharan Dust will bring back the haze. The high will keep moisture levels at 1.5″ or less and should stifle most lifting mechanisms. Air quality will improve heading into the weekend.  However, another plume of Saharan Dust is headed towards Texas by Monday night that should continue through the work week resulting in another stretch of reduced air quality.  Storms will sit in the middle of the highs over the weekend.  One over the Mississippi Valley and another over Mexico.  This will bring in some high clouds but sinking air in the mid-levels will prevent showers.  Gulf moisture will continue to move into the area in the low levels.  High pressure in the Gulf will continue pushing that moisture in from the south.  By Tuesday moisture levels could be near 2″, there will be fast moving upper-level s winds, moisture colliding and lifting combined with the afternoon Seabreeze and showers and thunderstorms could be possible. Most showers will be along the coast.  The Saharan Dust will dry out the atmosphere while high pressure moves in from the northwest on Wednesday.  These two factors will decrease rain chances especially by Wednesday.  The Saharan Dust will act to suppress tropical cyclone development as well.   

Tropical Weather Update: Tropical Storm Activity is not expected over the next 48-hours.  Tropical forecast chances have been reduced to 20 percent over the next 5 days around the Yucatan Peninsula as an area of low pressure moves into the Bay of Campeche early next week.  It is too early to tell if this development will impact South Texas.  The storms in Nicaragua have moved over land bringing rain but this movement should weaken and lessen further development.