Less rain today but more is coming during the week

Tuesday Weather 8-9-22

 

Victoria, Texas-: Tonight: Mostly clear skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 75 degrees. Winds: SE 5-10 mph becoming light after Midnight.  20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms before 8 pm. 

Wednesday: Mostly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 95 degrees. Heat indices near 106 degrees.  Winds: SE 5 mph.  A 30% chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly after 2 pm.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 75 degrees. Winds: SE 10-15/G20 mph becoming light after Midnight.  30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms before 8 pm.

Thursday: Mostly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 93 degrees. Winds: SE  5-10 mph.  A 40%-60% chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms after 2 pm.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 74 degrees. Winds: SE 10-15 mph becoming light after Midnight.  40% to 60% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms after 2 am.

Extended Forecast: Friday through Wednesday: 

Thursday: Mostly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 93/74 degrees. Winds: SE  5-10 mph.  A 60% chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms after 2 pm.

Friday: Mostly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 92/74 degrees. Winds: SE 5-10 mph.  A 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday: Mostly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 93/74 degrees. Winds: SE 10 mph.  A 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms mostly after 8 am.  

Sunday: Mostly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 94/74 degrees. Winds: SE 10 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.  

Monday: Sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 95/74 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph.  A 30% chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.  

Tuesday: Mostly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 97/74 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.  

Wednesday: Partly cloudy skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 98/75 degrees. Winds: SW 15 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.  

Synopsis: Troughs moved into the area yesterday with moisture levels over 2.0″.  These dynamics brought isolated showers and thunderstorms with extra lift created by the Seabreeze.  The Seabreeze pushed the storms further inland during the day while disturbances pushed west and out of the area on Monday afternoon and evening with rain activity tapering off last night.

High pressure will push in from Mexico (the west) today (Tuesday) while the low-pressure storm in eastern Mexico continues to move off to the west (towards the Pacific Ocean and away from the Gulf).  This movement will decrease moisture levels from 2.0″ down to 1.7″.  Today should be less active compared to yesterday, but isolated showers and thunderstorms along the Seabreeze should still be in the cards for the afternoon and evening.

Heat indices stay on the 105-109 degrees side with some spots getting to 110 degrees for short periods of time. Tides and rip tides look to stay under advisory level which means coastal flooding is looking less likely.

For the long-term period, Tuesday night through Sunday, the area is not looking at any drought busters (accumulations) but rain chances stay alive for most of the week. High-pressure in the Four Corners region will start to lift towards the north during the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame.  This movement will allow for a trough to move in from the south (on the edge of the high). This weather feature will bring moisture levels up (2.3″ range) by Thursday.  Isolated showers on Wednesday will evolve into more organized disturbances by Thursday (Thursday morning) and Friday due to the arrival of the higher levels of moisture and troughs.  The most eastern locations (along the coast) will see rain chances around 40-60 percent while inland areas (more west) will see rain chances around 20-30 percent for Thursday and Friday.

High-pressure will start to move back into South Texas from the north over the weekend.  The high will help keep conditions dry while pushing down on the atmosphere.  Showers could linger over the weekend while dry conditions will stand out starting off the next work week. Rain will cool the area down after Wednesday but the weekend should start to see temperatures warm again right through next week.  Heat indices will be in the 105-109 degrees range but a few spots could hit 110 degrees plus (Wednesday) inciting Heat Advisory Conditions.

Tropical Update: a tropical wave in the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean continues to bring unorganized showers and thunderstorms a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.  The wave could turn into a tropical depression later in the week (20 percent chance over the next 48-hours). Environmental conditions become less favorable as we head towards the weekend (through 5-days 40 percent).