India in 2019: Elections, economics and the world’s biggest pilgrimage

This year brought big changes to Indian society. The Supreme Court decriminalized gay sex and scrapped an outdated adultery law, both relics of the colonial past, while the #MeToo movement finally arrived in a country notorious for sexual violence against women.

Economic growth recovered and then slowed over 2018, while millions were hit by record-breaking floods.

The new year looks poised to be even more eventful. Here are four major developments to watch over the coming 12 months.

A high-stakes election

The next general election must be held by May 2019 — and it could be a much closer race than many had predicted just a month ago.

Four years ago, incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi led his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to a record-breaking victory, winning the strongest popular mandate in three decades. Congress, which had ruled India for much of its post-independence history, suffered its worst ever tally of seats in the national parliament.

At the start of this year, Modi might have been expected to repeat the feat in 2019. But recent results from key state elections suggest the tide may be turning: the BJP lost power to Congress in three major states, surprising many political observers.

Modi’s supporters argue that the Prime Minister remains the country’s most popular leader, and that the results of state elections don’t automatically translate to national level.

But for his opponents, the state results were a much-needed shot in the arm: for the first time in years, they sense an opportunity to strike a blow against Modi, long seen as the favorite for 2019.

Despite relatively high rates of GDP growth, joblessness remains a major problem for many young Indians, and signs of distress in the still vast rural economy have been growing over the course of the year.

This has all put Modi on the back foot entering the new year, and the election promises to be a real contest.

Economy set to grow, even as millions struggle to find work

2019 could be the year when India finally leapfrogs the UK and France to become one of the world’s five biggest economies, according to the Center for Economics and Business Research, a London-based think tank.

It was meant to happen in 2018 until the country’s currency took a hit — and the CEBR says it could still be delayed to 2020.

But even as its GDP expands, India grapples with a continuing jobs crisis. Unemployment has been rising steadily since the summer of 2017,