Is Now a Good Time to Refinance Your Mortgage?

Average mortgage rates recently climbed back above 3% for the first time since April. As rates inch higher, you may be wondering if it’s still a good time to refinance your home loan. The short answer is yes.

Despite the increases, mortgage rates remain near historic lows and millions of well-qualified borrowers should be able to save by refinancing.

There are currently 11.8 million borrowers who could reduce their interest rate by at least 0.75% by refinancing, according to mortgage analytics firm Black Knight. On average, those borrowers could reduce their monthly payments $284 by refinancing, though 1.4 million of them could save $500 per month or more.

Of course, historically low rates don’t automatically mean a refinance is the right move for you. Here’s how to decide.


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If your current mortgage rate is above 4.05%, now is a good time to refinance

Mortgage rates for well-qualified borrowers have been hovering around 3% or less for the past four months. The current average for a 30-year fixed-rate loan is 3.05%. Rates are likely to continue rising, but there is no indication that rates will be rising significantly in the near future. You should take the time to find out if a refinance makes sense.

One of the indications that a refinance is a good idea is if you can reduce your current interest rate by at least 0.5% to 1%.

If you have a $300,000 balance on your mortgage and you refinance to a new 30-year loan, lowering your interest rate from 3.75% to 3.25% will save around $84 per month or $1,008 per year. If you can reduce the rate by 1%, from 3.75% to 2.75%, your monthly savings would be $165 per month or $1,980 per year.

Of course, you don’t have to refinance into another 30-year loan. If your finances have improved and you can afford higher monthly payments you can refinance your 30-year loan into a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage, which will allow you to pay the loan off faster and also pay less interest.

Taking a look at your monthly savings is just one part of the refi equation, however. You also need to factor in the cost of switching out your loan and how long it will take you to recover those costs, or ‘break even’.

Just as with a purchase loan, you’ll have to pay closing costs on a refinance. These costs can include origination and applications fees, appraisal and inspection costs and title search fees. In all, closing costs can run between 3% and 6% of the total loan amount being refinanced.

You can determine your breakeven point by dividing your total closing costs by the amount you’ll save each month. The result is the number of months it will take you to recoup the refinance cost and start saving money. The less time it takes to break even, the more sense it makes to refinance your home loan.

The final piece of the refi puzzle is balancing your refinance goals with the change in the length of the loan. For example, if you are 10 years into a 30-year mortgage, refinancing into another 30-year loan means you’ll be paying a mortgage for 40 years instead of 30.

If your primary reason is reducing your monthly payment, refinancing into another 30-mortgage makes sense. However, if your goal is to save on interest and reduce the term of your loan, then refinancing a 30-year into a 15-year mortgage may be the better option, as long as you can afford the higher monthly payments. Use a mortgage refinance calculator to get a sense of what might work for you.

Are mortgage refinance rates still low?

When the COVID-19 pandemic first hit in March of last year, the Federal Reserve devised a monetary policy to help stabilize financial markets and soften the economic impact of the virus. Part of that policy included reducing the federal funds rate — the interest rate banks charge each other for short-term loans — to near zero.

The Fed also pledged to purchase $40 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities, and $80 billion in Treasury notes and other financial instruments per month to inject money into the economy and encourage investing and lending.

As a result, yields on the 10-year Treasury notes dropped below 1%, placing more downward pressure on interest rates and mortgage rates in particular. Mortgage rates are tied to the 10-year Treasuries, with loan rates averaging around 1.8 percentage points higher than yields. The lower the yield, the lower the interest rate.

The net effect of these policies was to drive mortgage rates down, with the average rate for a 30-year dropping below 3% for the first time in history on July 16, 2020. Rates reached a record low of 2.65% on January 7 of this year.

Since then, rates have climbed, briefly rising above 3% in March and April before diving back under 3% until September 30th, when rates climbed back above 3%. The current mortgage rate is averaging 3.05%.

Treasury yields have also made a comeback, rising from an all-time low of 0.48% early in the pandemic to averaging between 1.3% and 1.5%. However, both yields and rates seem to have reached a plateau, with very little significant, sustained movement either up or down.

Still, if you’re considering a refinance, it may be best to act sooner rather than later. Economists agree that mortgage rates will start to increase, most likely sometime during the third quarter, with rates ending the year at around 3.5%


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How to Know When to Refinance Your Mortgage

Here are some key points you should consider when deciding whether to refinance your mortgage:

  • Your credit score. With most mortgage lenders, you’ll need a credit score of at least 620 to qualify for a mortgage refinance. To get the lowest mortgage rate, you’ll need a 740. Also keep in mind that, if your credit is lower than it was when you took out your current mortgage, you may not qualify for as favorable a rate as you did before.
  • Your debt-to-income ratio (DTI). For conventional loans, some lenders will work with a DTI as high as 43%. FHA loans will go a little higher, usually accepting DTIs of 50%. Lower, however, is generally better.
  • How long you’re staying. When you refinance, you’ll need to pay closing costs. If you plan to move out in the near future, you may not break even.
  • How much equity you have in your home. In order to qualify for a mortgage refinance you generally need at least 20% equity in your home.

Don’t try to time the market. Waiting on rate swings is as troublesome as timing the stock market. Don’t wait to see what happens with mortgage rates tomorrow if you can save money or move closer to your financial goals by refinancing today.


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Mortgage Refinance FAQ

Are refinance rates going down?

While current mortgage rates remain low, most mortgage experts anticipate rates will drift higher over the coming months and years. The Federal Reserve now says it’s likely to start raising interest rates in 2023. The Fed does not set mortgage rates, but lenders tend to increase the price to borrow money when the Fed acts.

Why would refinancing be a bad idea?

Refinancing is a bad idea if it doesn’t represent some sort of gain, be it in the form of lower monthly payments or saving on interest by reducing the term of your loan. If the interest rate being offered isn’t at least 0.5% lower than your current rate, it’s probably not worth the cost of a refi. Another reason not to refinance is if you plan on selling the house before you reach your breakeven point or if the new monthly payment is more than you can comfortably afford.

Is it cheaper to refinance with my current lender?

Not necessarily. While having an established relationship with your current lender may lead to more favorable rates, it’s not a guarantee. Your best option for finding the best mortgage rate is to shop around and consider different types of lenders, including banks, mortgage brokers, private lenders and credit unions.

How do I get the best refinance loan rates?

Try to go through the mortgage pre-approval process with at least three lenders to find out your real rate and make sure you are getting the best deal. Freddie Mac has found that borrowers save an average of $1,500 over the life of the loan by getting one additional rate quote — and an average of about $3,000 if they get five quotes.

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