Heavy rain expected late week, flash flooding possible

Rainfall totals could be in excess of over 2"

VICTORIA, Texas – Here is an update on what to expect through the weekend.

WHAT IS HAPPENING: An upper level low to our west is cut off from the main jet stream. When this happens there is little upper level support to move the low rapidly in any one direction. So this will linger across northern Mexico for a short time before moving northeast. The Crossroads will be in the lifting side of this upper level low. We are also tracking a cold front that that move into the area on Thursday. That front may also stall across the area. There will be enough moisture at the surface and mid to upper levels to keep the clouds and rain chances through the weekend.

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TIMING: Moderate to heavy rain will begin early Friday morning and last through Sunday midday. Timing still subject to change but that’s what it looks like at this time.

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HOW MUCH RAIN: Computer models continue to show increasing amounts across our area. I’m anticipating widespread 2 inches with isolated amounts going higher. As we get closer to Friday, these numbers may go up.

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FLASH FLOODING: Despite us being so dry, if heavy rain falls, the ground won’t be able to absorb it quickly so it will become runoff. This could lead to flash flooding. The Weather Prediction Center has the entire Crossroads under a Marginal Risk for flash flooding which means isolated flash flooding is possible. I have a feeling that we may get upgraded for the Saturday time frame.


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