Heat advisories return to the Crossroads but weekend rain chances could cool us down

Wednesday Weather 8-3-22

 

 

 

Victoria, Texas-: Tonight: Mostly clear skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 77 degrees. Winds: SE 15-20/G25 mph.  10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: Sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 97 degrees. Winds: SE 5-15/G20 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog before 8 am.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 76 degrees. Winds: SE 10-15/G20 mph becoming SE 5-10 mph after Midnight.  10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Friday: Mostly sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 95 degrees. Winds: SE 10-15/G20 mph.  A 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms after 1 pm.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 74 degrees. Winds: SE 5-15/G20 mph.  40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms before and after 4 am.

Extended Forecast: Saturday through Thursday: 

Saturday: Mostly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 91/75 degrees. Winds: SE 10-15/G20 mph.  A 60% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday: Mostly sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 94/75 degrees. Winds: SE 10-15/G25 mph.  A 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms after 1 pm.  

Monday: Mostly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 94/76 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph.  A 30% chance of PM scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Tuesday: Sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 94/75 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 96/76 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 96/75 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph.  A 40% chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Synopsis: High pressure in the Four Corners will continue to move from west to east into the state of Texas through Wednesday.  The high’s influence (push down effect) will promote sunny, hot and dry conditions (more stable).  On Wednesday the area will see gusty winds (30 mph range in the afternoon) with winds lessening later on in the afternoon.

High pressure has wrung out some moisture (down to 1.5″ and below average) in the atmosphere pretty much keeping rain chances around 10 percent through Wednesday.  As low-level moisture moves in from the Gulf, combined with high-pressure overhead, the area will see heat indices from 105-109 degrees, as well as some spots warming between 110-114 degrees.  This warming will incite heat advisory criteria for Wednesday and maybe even Thursday and Friday as well.   

The elevated fire weather could be a problem for Wednesday (in the afternoon) as temperatures increase (100 degrees), winds stay gusty (SE 20-25/G30) and relative humidity values stay between 20-30 percent. Fires could start quickly and could spread and get out of control rapidly.

For the long-term period, Thursday through Tuesday, high-pressure will stay in control of the atmosphere for the rest of the forecast period.  That doesn’t mean conditions will stay dry through the weekend.  A trough could move into the exposed southeastern edge of the high as we move into the weekend.   This added moisture combined with daytime heating from the sun could fire up some showers Friday through Sunday (during the afternoon and evening).

High pressure will move out of the area (into the Middle Mississippi Valley) early next week while the trough and disturbances continue west and away from South Texas.

High-pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico will continue to push low-level moisture into South Texas Monday through Tuesday.  This extra moisture will contribute to more rain chances.  Thursday will be another hot one with heat advisories likely (Heat Index Temperatures from 109-114 degrees).

Weaker high-pressure, cloud cover and rain will start to drop temperatures over the weekend.  Temperatures should start to warm back up during the work week.

The elevated fire weather could be a problem again for Thursday (in the afternoon) for short periods of time as temperatures stay hot (100 degrees), winds stay somewhat breezy (15-20) and relative humidity values stay between 20-25 percent.  The additional moisture over the weekend should put a temporary stop to the elevated fire weather.

Tropical Weather Update: There is not any tropical storm

or hurricane activity expected over the next 48 hours.