Fog and clouds but the sun will shine on Wednesday

Tuesday Weather 4-5-22

 

Victoria, Texas-:  Tonight: Partly cloudy with increasing clouds and light winds while temperatures stay above average.  Low: 66 degrees. Winds: S 5-10 mph.  10% chance of scattered showers and possible thunderstorms.  Patchy fog after 4 am.

Wednesday: Partly sunny becoming sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 86 degrees. Winds: N 15-20/G30 mph becoming SW 5-10 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night: Clear skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay below average.  Low: 47 degrees. Winds: N 15-20/G30.  10% chance of scattered showers and possible thunderstorms.

Extended Forecast: Thursday through Wednesday: 

Thursday: Sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 79/44 degrees. Winds: N 10-15 mph increasing to N 15-20/G30 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Friday: Sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 81/49 degrees. Winds: NW 5-10 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday: Sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 84/60 degrees. Winds: S 20  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday: Mostly sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 82/66 degrees. Winds: SE 25.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Monday: Partly sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 82/70 degrees. Winds: SE 20 A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday: AM clouds with PM sun with breezy winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 88/70 degrees. Winds: SE 20 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday: AM clouds with PM sun with moderate winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 88/61 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Sy
nopsis: Rain was thwarted after 8 pm Monday night due to weather variables pushing down on the atmosphere.  Last night around 1 am upper level winds moving at 140 mph moved over the viewing area while a trough pushed through as well.  This triggered some showers over Northwest Mexico that moved west to east and into the viewing area and overcoming some of the push down effect on the atmosphere.   Severe weather could have been a factor.

The push down effect on the atmosphere will trap moisture leading to fog between 1 am and 7 am Tuesday as the trough moves off to the east of the viewing area.  Airflow out of the Gulf (southeast) increases late Tuesday.  Quick cooling will lead to more fog Tuesday night.  Patchy fog will be prevalent from 1 am to 7 am on Wednesday morning.

For the long-term period, Wednesday through Monday, the viewing area should experience hot conditions by the middle of the week.  Rain chances drop to 10-20 percent later in the week.

A cold front attached a to a low will move through the Great Lakes on Wednesday.  The front will extend down into Mexico. The lowest end will move through South Texas in the form of a cold front.  The front will push into the northern portion of the viewing area Wednesday morning, moving over the coast by Wednesday afternoon.  Moisture levels below 1″ will be too dry for precipitation to develop.

These dry conditions will lead to elevated (critical) fire weather on Wednesday due to decreasing dewpoints, warm temperatures, and low relative humidity’s (in the teens and 20’s Wednesday afternoon).  Combine this with gusty winds out of the north and dry vegetation, and fires could start quickly and could spread very rapidly.

Winds lessen on Thursday, but so do moisture levels, keeping elevated fire conditions going.  Fire weather conditions should continue through the weekend as winds pick up during this time.  Those winds out of the Gulf, will bring moisture back into South Texas, but the winds could gain advisory strength, again promoting the fire weather on Monday.

Before the front moves down, Wednesday temperatures on the coast will be in the 80’s, away from the coast in the 90’s, and further west temperatures could warm into the 100’s.  Wednesday night temperatures will drop into the 50’s, as the cold front pulls in cooler air from the north.

The dry airmass will promote cooling (40’s and 50’s) overnight, with fog chances.  Temperatures will warm back up over the weekend after a few days during the week staying in the 70’s.