First rain showers of the year look to move in this weekend

Friday Weather 1-7-22

 

VICTORIA, Texas-: TodayPartly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 57 degrees. Winds: E/NE 10 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  Low: 38 degrees. Winds: E/NE 10 mph.  A 60% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms with less than 1/10″ rain.  Patchy fog after Midnight.  The low temperature will be early in the day as temperatures climb to around 62 degrees later in the evening as warm air pushes up from the Gulf.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 75 degrees. Winds: E 5-15/G20 mph switching to out of the south.  A 70% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay above average.  Low: 65 degrees. Winds: SE 5-10 mph (becoming southwest after Midnight).  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.


Extended 
Forecast: Sunday through Friday:    

Sunday: Mostly cloudy skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 78/50 degrees. Winds: N 10-15 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Monday: 
Partly sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 61/41 degrees. Winds: NE 15-20/G25 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday: Partly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 62/46 degrees. Winds: NE 10 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday: Most cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 69/55 degrees. Winds: SE 10 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: Cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 72/60 degrees. Winds: SE 10 mph.  A 40% chance of early scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Friday: Partly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 76/53 degrees. Winds: S 10 mph.  A 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Synopsis:  The cold front moved through the area around 6 pm on Thursday night.  Winds picked up as the front passed through the area (N 15-25 mph).  Cool, drier air moved in as skies stayed clear last night.  Locations south of Highway 77 dropped into the 40’s while areas to the north of Highway 77 dropped into the 30’s. The cold front will keep inland temperatures on Friday in the 50’s, while coastal areas stay in the 60’s (low to mid).  The low temperatures will be earlier in the day as the warm Gulf air (low-level under the winds out of the north) will allow for temperatures to climb Friday evening.  The increased moisture should bring patchy fog on Friday night.

Winds out of the north should last through Friday night before tapering off.  The front will stall over the Gulf on Friday and will turn into a trough of warmer air.  Cold air will move underneath warmer air, giving enough lift to trigger some rain showers during the mid-morning hours on Friday that could linger into Friday evening.  As Gulf moisture moves up out of the south on Friday, then rain chances will increase, especially over the open waters.

The boundary will then move back to the north (towards South Texas) Friday night, and on Saturday and Sunday as the warm, moist air continues to move out of the southeast/south allowing for temperatures to climb back into the mid 70’s to the low 80’s over the weekend.

In the long term for the extended period, days 3 to 7, Saturday through Thursday, storm energy will move into the area on Saturday, meeting up with Gulf moisture and the lifting in place from the cold air under cutting the warmer air.  This will further destabilize the atmosphere, again helping with chances.  Severe weather is possible for Houston on Saturday, while the Crossroads could see some of these conditions as well.

The moisture increase, some lifting, energy from the sun as well as the arrival of another cold front on Sunday could trigger some thunderstorms in South Texas.

Then, the Sunday cold front will push south into the area Sunday afternoon and evening.  Temperatures will drop from the front, but they should stay above freezing.  The showers that develop (mostly over the open waters)  along the front (as well as out in front of the boundary) will taper off through Monday morning.  Early next week on Monday, cooler, drier air will move back down into South Texas from the north and northeast.

The winds out of the north from the cold front will be gusty Sunday night through Monday (mostly along the coast).  The increased moisture should keep us out of fire danger even after the winds pick up.

Airflow out of the Gulf returns on Tuesday, warming temperatures as well as increasing rain chances Tuesday night and on Wednesday.