Fall might feel like Winter soon

Thursday Weather 11-17-22


Victoria
, Texas-: Tonight: Mostly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  Low: 46 degrees. Winds: NE 5-10.  10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms after.

Friday: Cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 54 degrees. Winds: NE 5-10 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Friday Night: Cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  Low: 43 degrees. Winds: NE 10-15.  70% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms mostly after 1 am.

Extended Forecast: Saturday through Friday:

Saturday: Cloudy skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 46/43 degrees. Winds: NE 10-15/G20 mph.  A 90% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday: Cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 52/44 degrees. Winds: NE 10 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Monday: Mostly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 52/47 degrees. Winds: NE 10 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms after 7 am.

Tuesday: Cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 62/54 degrees. Winds: NE 10 mph.  A 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 70/55 degrees. Winds: NE 5 mph.  A 40% chance of PM scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: Partly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 70/51 degrees. Winds: NE 10 mph.  A 60% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Friday: Mostly cloudy skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 65/45 degrees. Winds: N 10 mph.  A 30% chance of AM scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Synopsis: Disturbances have been moving out of the south and triggering some coastal and over the water showers on Thursday while storms are moving into Northern Nevada on Friday night.  At the same time, disturbances will push out of northeast Mexico and into South Texas on Friday night.  Also, warm air out of the south will move up out of the south Thursday night.  The cooler dry air from the north will undercut this moist, warm air from the south (creating lift) allowing for scattered showers. A cold front boundary will move down from the north on Friday evening.  This will strengthen winds while the undercutting of this moist, warm air will keep showers going Friday into Friday night.  Winds moving in from the northeast could cause some coastal flooding on Gulf facing beaches for high tide and around 1 am on Saturday.

For the long term, Saturday through Wednesday, that boundary will send cold air down from the north that will lead to a potential wind advisory Saturday night into Sunday with winds along the coast gusting to 35-40 mph. Again these winds could cause some coastal flooding on Gulf facing beaches high swells and rip tides.  Disturbances, and moisture running into moisture (creating lift) will keep rain chances going on Saturday.  Showers should let up on Sunday.  More disturbances will slide out of the northwest towards South Texas bringing more showers Sunday night and Monday morning.  These storms will move east of the area by Tuesday.  There is a chance for drier conditions on Tuesday (still with rain chances though).  Rain chances Tuesday through Thursday will be mostly over the waters and along the coast.  Some of the cold days with the wind chills will feel closer to the 30’s with the effect.  With warm air moving up from the south, temperatures could warm into the 70’s by the middle of the week.

Tropical Update:  There are no weather features over the next 48-hours.