Early fog but then mostly sunny with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90’s
Tuesday Weather 6-21-22
Extended Forecast: Thursday through Tuesday:
Thursday: Sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay above average. High: 99/74 degrees. Winds: SE 5-10 mph. A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Disturbances pushing in from the east, combined with moisture (2″ along the coast, 1.5″ inland) running into moisture (creating lift) as well as daytime heating from the sun could allow for showers on Tuesday. The most unstable locations will be along the coast. The Seabreeze will move some instability further west during the day.
High pressure should stifle most of the rain activity and will keep the thunderstorms in isolated locations if these storms are able to defeat the storm CAP/LID (high-pressure).
For the long-term period, Wednesday through Monday, high-pressure is holding firm in the Southern Plains. This is allowing for some upper-level spin and while protecting the area from storms. The high will weaken, allowing for some storms on Wednesday to potentially break the storm CAP/LID on the atmosphere as storms (bringing nearly 2″ of moisture in from the Gulf) move in from the northern periphery of the high.
Later in the week, the high will move backwards or towards the west, allowing for more rain chances as the high pulls further away from Texas and some disturbances pull more moisture back into the area. This will be a bleep on the radar while most of the time, the hot and dry conditions continue.
Saharan Dust: The dust might not be as bad or might not stick around as long as last week, but the dust should return during the middle of the week and could linger into the weekend.
Temperatures increase by the middle of the week (upper 90’s near the coast and into the 100’s further west). Heat indices will range between 105-109 degrees with some spots hitting 110 degrees. Keep heat safety in mind, and limit outdoor exposure as well as staying hydrated while using plenty of sun block.
The heat and dry fuels are a nightmare for fires getting out of control. Humidity levels will be low, but winds will not get out of hand. Either way, pay mind to fire weather concerns even if the area stays below Elevated Fire Weather Concerns.
Tropical Update: Tropical Cyclone Activity is not expected over the next 48-Hours.
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