Early fog before heat indices approach 106 degrees

Friday Weather 6-24-22

 

Victoria, Texas-: TodaySunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 100 degrees. Winds: SE 5-15/G20 mph.  Heat Index Temperature will be near 106 degrees. Patchy fog before 7 am.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Friday Night: Mostly clear skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 74 degrees. Winds: S 15/G25 mph decreasing to S 5-10 mph after Midnight.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday: Sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 99 degrees. Winds: SE 10-15/G20 mph.  Heat Index Temperature will be near 105 degrees.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday Night: Clear skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 73 degrees. Winds: SE 10-15/G20 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Extended Forecast: Sunday through Friday: 

Sunday:  Sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 98/75 degrees. Winds: SE 5-10 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
MondayMostly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 98/75 degrees. Winds: E 5-10 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
 
Tuesday: Partly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 91/75 degrees. Winds: NE 10 mph.  A 60% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
 
Wednesday: Partly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 93/75 degrees. Winds: E 10 mph.  A 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
 
Thursday: Mostly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 93/75 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph.  A 30% chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
 
Friday: Partly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 95/76 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Synopsis: Low level moisture, dry mid to upper levels, high pressure and light winds could allow for some overnight patchy fog.  Less moisture could lead to slightly cooler temperatures overnight Thursday into Friday morning.  So drier with less moisture will also mean lower dewpoint temperatures.  This fog development could resume again Friday night into Saturday.

The drier air allowed for temperatures to drop last night but the dry air will also allow for warmer temperatures on Friday.  The lower relative humidity levels could allow for more comfortable conditions, but the heat indices will still be in the 105–109-degree range.

The high-pressure system will move to the northeast on Friday while a trough (inverted) moves towards the Texas coast from the east.  Rain probably will not be a concern due to limited moisture availability, a CAP/LID on the atmosphere that should stop the sun’s daytime heating from firing up some showers.  Out over the water and along the coast there could be a rogue shower or two, but nothing too long lasting or of great intensity.

For the long-term period,  Saturday through Thursday, high-pressure will remain in control through the weekend maintaining dry, hot rainless conditions.  Heat indices will range from 105-109 degrees right through the weekend.  On Monday, the high-pressure feature will move to the west of the area.

Airflow will move in from the Gulf (south/southeast), increasing moisture in the Crossroads to around 2″.   Some upper-level lift and spin will move into South Texas due to a trough over the eastern part of the United States that will move over the southern cusp edge of the high-pressure systems that could allow for rain and thunderstorms early next week during the Tuesday and Wednesday time frame.  The rain could be heavy if the moisture continues to rise.  The increase in cloud cover (and rain chances) will keep temperatures cooler next week (Monday through Thursday).

Tropical Update:  A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Conditions appear conducive for additional development over the next few days.  A tropical depression could form by early next week as this system moves westward around 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.  Formation over the next 48-hours is at 20 percent, while formation over the next 5-days is at 40 percent.