Early fog and then beautiful

Thursday Weather 3-3-22

 

Victoria, Texas-:  Today: Partly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 73 degrees. Winds: SE 5-10 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Areas of fog before 9 am.

 

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay above average.  Low: 56 degrees. Winds: SE 5-15 mph.  10% chance of scattered showers and possible thunderstorms.  Patchy fog after 11 pm.

Friday: Partly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 76 degrees. Winds: SE 10-15 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog before Noon.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay above average.  Low: 59 degrees. Winds: SE 10-15 mph.  10% chance of scattered showers and possible thunderstorms.

Extended Forecast: Saturday through Thursday: 

Saturday: Partly sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 78/64 degrees. winds: S 10-15 mph increasing to 15-20/G25 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday: Partly sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay above average. High: 80/62 degrees. Winds: SE 10-20/G25 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms before Noon.

Monday: Mostly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  high: 73/48 degrees. Winds: N 20 mph.  A 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly before Noon.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 64/47 degrees. winds: NE 15 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday: Cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 64/46 degrees. winds: NE 10 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: Partly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 76/47 degrees. Winds: W 10 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Synopsis:  High pressure will keep us clear and dry through Thursday night.  A disturbance passed through South Texas Wednesday (last) night.  The feature brought clouds and moisture to the area.

The northern portion of the high-pressure system is to the south, a disturbance will move along the northern portion of the high.  This means the disturbance will stay to the north of the viewing area on Thursday, then will move to the northeast of the area Thursday night.

Moisture levels will be too low/dry (1″ range) to bring anything in the way of rain.  Over the water rain chances will be better (20 percent) with higher moisture levels potentially bringing some sprinkles Thursday and Thursday night.

After three nights/mornings in a row dropping into the 30’s temperature wise, the increased cloud cover, combined with the warm, moist air moving out of the Gulf (southeast) kept low temperatures in the 50’s across South Texas Wednesday night.  This warm air continues to push into the area Thursday and overnight on Thursday, keeping temperatures warm.

Fog will be more limited near the coast but on the thicker side away from the ocean.  Wednesday nights fog will start to lift Thursday by mid-morning as the sun begins to warm the area.  Fog should drop visibility again Thursday night into Friday morning as sea fog develops and then start to move inland Friday morning.

Fuels out west remain dry, but with light winds and relative humidity above 35 percent then fire weather should not be an issue.  Don’t be reckless and continue to exercise caution around flames.

For the long-term period, Friday through Wednesday, high pressure will move east, keeping temperatures warm right through the weekend in South Texas.

As high pressure shifts east, a low-pressure system will move east across the Great Plains from the Four Corners region.  The tug on these systems will spike up the winds (breezy 15-20/G25 winds) through the weekend in the Crossroads.

Over the weekend, cooler air undercutting warmer air (lift), combined with an increase in warmer, moist air could bring some rain showers.

A cold front will move through South Texas Monday morning (7 am ish) and reaching the coast by Noon.  Moisture levels will increase (1.5″) out in front of as well as along the boundary, leading to isolated and scattered showers Monday morning across the viewing area.  The front will push through the area by Monday afternoon, allowing for cold, dry air deliver drier conditions on Tuesday.  Rain could happen again by next Wednesday and Thursday as disturbances pass through South Texas combined with Gulf moisture pushing into the area.

Moisture and winds moving out of the southeast (Gulf) on Friday will allow for patchy fog on Friday and Saturday morning.  Winds inland, might be too strong for fog further inland.  Sea fog is a possibility Saturday through Monday as warm air moves over the cooler Bay waters.

Fog chances will decrease by Monday.  Weekend temperatures out west could warm into the 90’s.  A front moving through the area on Monday will drop temperatures down by 12-20 degrees as highs stay in the 60’s.  Temperatures will continue to cool on Tuesday and Wednesday.