Dense Fog Advisory Until 8 am Thursday

Thursday Weather 1-6-22

 

VICTORIA, Texas-: Today: Sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 70 degrees. Winds: Light becoming N 10-15/G20.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Widespread dense fog before 9 am.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay below average.  Low: 39 degrees. Winds: N 10-15 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Friday: Partly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 61 degrees. Winds: NE 10 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  Low: 37 degrees. Winds: E 5-10 mph.  A 60% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms after Midnight.

Extended Forecast: Saturday through Thursday:    

Saturday: Mostly cloudy skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 78/63 degrees. Winds: S 5-10 mph increasing to 10-15/G20 mph.  A 60% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday: Partly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 77/46 degrees. Winds: SW 5-15/G20 mph switching to out of the North.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Monday: 
Partly sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 59/40 degrees. Winds: NE 20 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday: Partly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 60/46 degrees. Winds: E 10 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 65/57 degrees. Winds: SE 10 mph.  A 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: Cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 71/56 degrees. Winds: SE 10 mph.  A 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Synopsis:  Warming 850 mb (5,000 feet) temps along with airflow out of the southwest, kept temperatures in the 70’s and 80’s on Wednesday.  Those winds switched to out of the south/southeast during the day on Wednesday, which allowed for low-level moisture to start moving into South Texas.

This increase in moisture, the easing of the winds, and the close proximity of the dewpoint temperatures and the ambient temperatures (within 1 degree of each other) will provide for another round of fog on Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

A cold front moving into the northern part of the state Wednesday evening (staying north of South Texas) will move through South Texas on Thursday afternoon with a trough pushing through earlier on Thursday that will shift winds out of the south to out of the northwest.

Storm energy in the upper levels (500 mb) will push through South Texas Thursday afternoon and will end up sending the cold front through the area Thursday night (evening).  The trough movement and the cold front push will switch winds to out of the north on Thursday, add the increasing cloud cover into the mix and temperatures will be 5-10 degrees cooler on Thursday compared to Wednesday.

The passage of cold front will not bring much in the way of rain due to low moisture levels, along with a storm CAP at the 850 mb (5,000 feet) level.

In the long term for the extended period, days 3 to 7, Thursday night through Tuesday, the surface cold front will bring in cooler and drier air into the area Thursday night.  This will drop Friday morning temperatures in the mid 30’s (more than likely (70 percent chance) staying above freezing, mid 40’s along the coast).

Storm energy and troughs moving across the Southern Plains will develop into low pressure systems Friday into Saturday.

The change of atmospheric pressure will result in winds out of the southeast on Friday and should stay out of the southeast and south through Sunday.

Moisture moving up from the Gulf will move into the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley will result in rain chances (20-50 percent chance) on Friday night.  This rain event will shift to over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and Sunday where sunshine will be strong enough to support thunderstorms.

On Saturday and Sunday warm air will move out of the southeast (at the 850 mb and 700 mb level) and into South Texas raising temperatures into the mid 70’s to the low 80’s.

Then, another cold front will push south in the area Sunday afternoon and evening.  Showers will develop along the front (as well as out in front of the boundary), but the showers will taper off through Monday morning.  Early next week, cooler, drier air will move back down into South Texas from the north and northeast.