Cooler drier weather for next week and our eyes are on the tropics.

Forecast Synopsis KAVU 9-24-22



Tonight: Partly Cloudy, 20% chance of rain, Low: 72.

Winds: E 10-15 mph.

Saturday: Partly Cloudy, 20% chance of rain, High: 93 Low: 73

Winds:  SE 10 mph.

Extended forecast: Sunday through Friday: We’ll start off the week with partly cloudy skies during the day and a 20% chance for mainly afternoon showers and a few scattered thunderstorms through Monday.  After the passage of a dry front Monday, skies will become mostly sunny through Friday.  High temperatures will be in the low-90s, dropping to the upper 80s by the middle of the week with drier air moving into the area. Lows will be in the low to mid-60s, dropping to the low 60s by the middle of the week through the weekend.  Winds will be mostly from the northeast at 5-10 mph.  Tropical: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Fiona, Tropical Storm Gaston and Tropical Depression 9..

Major Hurricane Fiona is centered near 33.8N 66.8W at 23/0900 UTC or 130 nm NW of Bermuda moving NNE at 22 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 936 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt.

Tropical Storm Gaston is centered near 40.5N 29.6W at 23/0900 UTC or 120 nm NNW of Faial Island In The Central Azores moving ESE at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt.

Newly-formed Tropical Depression Nine is centered near 13.9N 68.6W at 23/0900 UTC or 530 nm ESE of Kingston Jamaica moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous strong convection is noted from 11N to 14N between 68W and 72W. Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding along with possible mudslides of higher terrain in Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao into tonight. Heavy rain will likely spread into Jamaica and the Cayman Islands into the weekend. Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is likely to become a tropical storm later today. Interests in Cuba should closely monitor this depression.

Synopsis: The mid level low over northeast Mexico Saturday night will weaken into a shear axis from northeast Mexico into the Brush Country Sunday. Models from GEFS/ECENS of moisture show values will range from 1.5 to 1.7 inches across the region. Expect isolated showers and a few storms will be possible along the coast on Sunday with better coverage over the waters. A short wave trough will deepen the upper trough over the Mid-South Sunday and push a frontal boundary southward through the southern plains. This boundary is expected to reach south Texas Monday. The moisture levels will continue to increase ahead of the front Monday. This will lead to isolated showers and storms with the front across most of the area. Drier air will move into the area behind this boundary leading to warm days and mild nights Tuesday through Thursday. Lows may approach the upper 50s over the Crossroads Thursday morning.

As for the tropics, Tropical Depression 9 has formed in the central Caribbean Sea this morning. NHC forecast shows a turn toward the northwest Sunday and intensification to a hurricane over the northwest Caribbean Sea Monday morning. The forecast track takes the system over western Cuba by Tuesday morning and then curve to the north-northeast into the southeast Gulf of Mexico Wednesday morning.  With this track over the far southeast Gulf of Mexico, there is uncertainty whether there will be effects from higher waves and swells into the western Gulf of Mexico. The ensemble model spread of the tracks from ECENS/GEFS/CAN is still quite large for Wednesday. The GFS-Wave model depicts higher period swells reaching the coast by Tuesday evening but the GFA was west of the forecast track. We will have better guidance in the next couple of days as far as possible coastal impacts to the region for the middle of next week..-Scott