Conditions dried off in time for fireworks but rain time is returning very soon

Monday Weather 7-5-21

 

VICTORIA, Texas-: Today: Mostly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 87 degrees. Winds: SE 10 mph. A 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms with totals between 1/4″ to 1/2″.
 

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 75 degrees. Winds: SE 5-10 mph. A 60% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms between 1 am and 3 am with totals near 1/10″ but greater where thunderstorms are present.  

Tuesday: Cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 86 degrees. Winds: SE 5-10 mph. A 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms. 

 

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 75 degrees. Winds: SE 5-10 mph. A 60% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.  

 
Wednesday: Partly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 85 degrees. Winds: SE 10 mph. An 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Extended ForecastWednesday Night through Monday:

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 74 degrees. Winds: SE 5 mph. A 60% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 85/75 degrees. Winds: SE 5-10 mph. An 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday: Cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 86/77 degrees. Winds: SE 10 mph. A 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday: Partly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 87/76 degrees. Winds: SE 10 mph. A 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday: Partly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 89/76 degrees. Winds: SE 10 mph. A 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Monday: Partly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 90/75 degrees. Winds: SE 10 mph. A 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. 

Synopsis: After drying off in time for firework festivities on the 4th of July, that hiatus will be very short-lived.  Rain chances will spike back up to 60-80 percent for Monday as thunderstorms are expected to redevelop.  Energy from the sun combined with Gulf moisture and trough movement should keep the weather active while storms move from east to west.  Large moisture levels will keep some showers active but overall rain coverage should decrease Monday night.  We will watch out for widespread flooding but what is more likely will be localized flash flooding.  Temperature highs for most of the week will stay about 5 degrees below average (93 degrees = Avg High) while overnight lows stay around average (74 degrees = Avg Low).  A wet and unsettled weather pattern looks favorable through most of the week.  A cut-off upper-level-low-pressure system positioned over AR/TX/LA will strengthen in as a low or trough over South Texas on Wednesday.  This weather feature will persist through Friday while high pressure remains nearly stationary over the southwest portion of the country.  Low-pressure will span over south into the Gulf waters and up to the Texas Gulf Coast through Wednesday night.  Then a trough from Mexico will extend into South Texas Thursday through Friday.  High pressure over the north Gulf of Mexico will slide westward as a disturbance pushes a trough westward into northeast Mexico Thursday through Friday.

Tropical Storm Elsa (T.S. = 39-73 mph, Elsa = 65 mph, moving NW at 15 mph, moving into Cuba early Monday morning, maybe 200 miles away from Miami by 5am show time).  Heavy rain will impact Cuba Sunday Monday, resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys and southern Florida early this week, isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding will be possible. Rainfall and storm surge will impact the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula beginning today.  The storm and rains should move north through the state of Florida through Wednesday and reaching Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday.  At this time, it does not look like Elsa will have a direct impact on the Middle Texas Coast.  The main concerns will be swells, rip currents and coastal flooding.  Swells would not likely make it to the area until Thursday and Friday for those headed to the beach next week.  By Friday, swells could be around 7-feet through the weekend. High tides will be higher than normal while rip currents will be strong.