Cold temperatures are back and more rain is on the way.

Forecast Synopsis KAVU 11-12-22


Tonight: Clear skies. Low: 39

Winds: NNE 5-10 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High: 62 Low: 52

Winds:  ENE 10 mph.

Extended forecast: Monday through Saturday: A warm front will move north through the Crossroads Sunday afternoon bringing moisture back into the area.  Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible starting Monday afternoon with temperatures warming to the upper 60s.  The slight warm up will be short lived as another cold front will sweep through the Crossroads late Monday evening bringing showers and thunderstorms. Highs will remain in the upper 50s to low 60s for much of the week.   Lows will be in the upper 30s to low 40s with wind chills near freezing inland and 40s to low 50s near the coast.

Synopsis:  Monday dry air exits stage right as surface high pressure shifts east. There will be a brief window of onshore flow ahead of an approaching/developing coastal low that moves towards the coastline. Moisture subsequently increases south of the I-10 corridor.  At nearly the same time, a shortwave trough will swing through North TX and become negatively tilted as it passes by on Monday afternoon. Additionally, with the coastal low moving overhead, we`ll get enhanced shear from a 35-45+ know low-level jet and a 60+ knot mid-level jet which adds to the 0-6km bulk shear of 60+  knots. Fortunately, the window of onshore flow isn`t long enough to give us widespread areas of instability inland. However, there is model consensus on a window of opportunity on Monday afternoon with enough instability near and south of I-10 that we could see isolated strong thunderstorms develop. SPC has portions of mainly the eastern Crossroads under a marginal risk of severe weather for Monday.

Another cold front follows after the low scoots out to the east leading to another influx of cooler and drier air as surface high pressure settles in through midweek. With persistent cold air advection, the period of below normal temperatures will continue as well with high temperatures in the 50s and low temperatures in the 30s/40s. Midweek is when things get interesting again…the 00Z models are actually in better agreement today. On Wednesday night, another coastal low should develop off of the South TX coastline and drift east-northeastward. The low itself is expected to remain well offshore, but the moisture from it combined with an incoming upper level trough should lead to scattered rain showers across the Crossroads on Wednesday night through Thursday morning. That upper level trough also ushers in much cooler 850mb temperatures with some models suggesting less than 0°C at 850mb north of I-10 by Thursday morning. During this time period, we`ll also have scattered rain showers and surface temperatures in the mid to upper 30s north ofI-10, so it`ll be worth keeping an eye on model trends…it`s too early to put any significant weight into certain deterministic model outputs that indicate a certain type of precipitation falling. -Scott