Cold, cloudy and breezy with light rain chances

Friday Weather 2-25-22

 

 

 

Victoria, Texas-:  Today: Cloudy skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 41 degrees. winds: NE 15/G25 mph.  A 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly before 11 am.

Friday NightCloudy skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 38 degrees. Winds: N 10-15 mph.  30% chance of scattered showers and possible thunderstorms after 9 pm.

Saturday: Cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 50 degrees. Winds: NE 10 mph.  A 80% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday Night: Cloudy skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 43 degrees. Winds: N 10-15 mph.  30% chance of scattered showers and possible thunderstorms mainly before Midnight.

Extended Forecast: Sunday through Friday: 

Sunday: Mostly cloudy skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay below average. High: 56/40 degrees. Winds: N 15/G20 mph.  A 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms before Noon.

Monday: Mostly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  high: 65/43 degrees. Winds: SE 5 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 69/49 degrees. Winds: NE 10 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 72/49 degrees. winds: E 10 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: Partly cloudy skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 75/55 degrees. winds: SE 15 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms before Noon.

Friday: Partly cloudy skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 78/61 degrees. winds: SE 15 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.


Synopsis:  
High pressure near the Canada United States border moved south Thursday night and into Kansas on Friday morning. This will further spike up the winds out of the north as well as keeping the colder air moving into Texas.  The area has seen worse because temperatures should stay above freezing throughout most of the viewing area Thursday night through Friday morning.

Moisture in the upper atmosphere will increase as winds out of the southwest (at the 900 mb/2,500 feet to 800 mb/6,000 feet level or 6,000 feet deep) switch to more out of the south grabbing the moist air out of the Gulf and pulling this moisture north.

Drizzle and rain Thursday night and Friday morning should diminish in coverage from west to east as cooler air undercutting the warmer (at the 300 mb/30,000 feet level) air to the south starts to lessen.

The arrival of this colder air, combined with thicker (increasing) stratus clouds (forming from cool moist air moving over colder land and ocean surfaces) will prevent the sun from heating up South Texas on Friday. Friday will stay in the 40’s again for highs while dropping into the mid to upper 30’s Friday night and into Saturday morning.

Friday night, once again cooler air moving down and undercutting warmer air from the south (with most of the moisture at the 5,000 to 6,000 feet/800 mb level), combined with fast moving upper-level winds (40 mph) will spur some more light rain.

For the long-term period, Saturday through Thursday, airflow out of the southwest will turn to west to east in the upper levels by Sunday.  High pressure moves down from the north over the weekend, but more disturbances push into South Texas later in the week.

The last cold front to push through the area is off to the south over the Gulf.  The front is slow to move (stalled) and will start to move from south to north and back into South Texas later this weekend.  The air will now be modified changing the boundary to a warm front.   The high-pressure system in the Southern Plains moving down into North Texas will strengthen winds once again out of the north.  This movement should then push the new warm front in the Gulf back south and further away from the area.

Before the front gets pushed away, cooler air moving down from the north and undercutting (creating enough lift) the warmer Gulf moisture once again will create some light (isolated to numerous) showers through Saturday in South Texas. These rain showers will begin to taper off on Sunday afternoon as the high-pressure system to the north continues to bring the drier air into the area.

High pressure will strengthen over South Texas over the weekend, but will start to shift eastward early next week, allowing for a return flow of warm, moist air out of the Gulf (south).

Rain chances will return late next week as storm disturbances approach South Texas.  This will occur even as high pressure develops earlier in the week, so rain chances will stay on the low side (20-30 percent).

The extra clouds combined with the showers over the weekend, high temperatures will stay in the low 50’s on Saturday, and the mid 50’s on Sunday.

High pressure will start moving west to east over Texas, gradually warming (increasing temperatures) by Monday. The high will move off and then the return flow of warm, moist air out of the Gulf (south) will increase temperatures by Wednesday into the low to mid 70’s and into the mid to upper 70’s by Thursday.

Temperatures through Monday night will stay in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s.  When the Gulf moisture (from the south) returns on Monday/Tuesday, then overnight temperatures will stay in the 50’s (warmer or cooler depending on cloud cover).