Clouds move in as winds weaken but stay breezy

Monday Weather 4-11-22

 

Victoria, Texas-:  Today: Mostly cloudy skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 85 degrees. Winds: SE 15-20/G30.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

 

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy with breezy winds while temperatures stay above average.  Low: 70 degrees. Winds: SE 15-20/G25 mph.  10% chance of scattered showers and possible thunderstorms.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 83 degrees. Winds: SE 15-20/G30 mph.  A 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 71 degrees. Winds: SE 15-20/G30 mph.  20% chance of scattered showers and possible thunderstorms before 1 am.

Extended Forecast: Wednesday through Monday: 

Wednesday: Partly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 89/58 degrees. Winds: S 15/G20 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: Mostly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 84/62 degrees. Winds: E 10-15/G25 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Friday: Mostly cloudy skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 83/68 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday: Partly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 87/68 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday: AM clouds and PM sun with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 89/67 degrees. Winds: SE 20.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Monday: Partly cloudy skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 81/55 degrees. Winds: NE 15.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Synopsis: Winds will lessen compared to yesterday’s 50 mph winds.  The atmosphere is still on the dry side, but moisture levels are starting to increase as moisture moves up from the Gulf.

Fast moving upper-level winds will weaken early on Monday, allowing for winds to drop down to 30-35 mph out of the southeast compared to yesterday’s 45-50 mph winds.

Fire weather conditions could subside on Monday as winds weaken, and moisture levels increase from the Gulf.  Before the winds weaken, early advisories could be issued on Monday before the winds weaken.

A few days ago, temperatures were dropping into the 40’s overnight.  Last night and Monday night could see temperatures overnight staying in the 70’s.  Monday will warm into the 80’s near the water, but off to the west temperatures will heat up into the 90’s.

For the long-term period, Tuesday through Sunday, low pressure storms will move through the Central Plains, keeping winds on the breezy side Tuesday night.  Early on Tuesday, a disturbance will move across the region that could bring scattered shower or two (possible thunderstorm) to South Texas.

Rain chances will be around 30 percent as moisture levels increase to around 1.5″.  If a thunderstorm develops then there is the potential for severe weather due to the energy stored from the sun.  A storm CAP could be the difference in a severe thunderstorm or in storms developing at all.

Storms and troughs will move through the Central Plains on Wednesday, this will push a dryline boundary into the Crossroads during this time. The dry air behind the boundary will drop humidity levels down between 20-40 percent on Wednesday.  This drop could promote critical fire weather for the rest of the week as winds pick up behind the dryline.

After temperatures warm into the 80’s, 90’s and 100’s out west on Tuesday and Wednesday, a cold front will move through South Texas on Wednesday night.  The intrusion of cooler air will keep temperatures in the lower 80’s and nights in the lower 60’s for a day or two.

A warm front will move up from the south on Thursday, and a disturbance/trough from the west will move into South Texas on Friday.  This movement has as a chance to bring rain showers to the area each day.

High pressure will move into South Texas to kick off the weekend.  Sunshine, clear skies and pushing down of the atmosphere should warm temperatures back up into the 90’s.