Above average temperatures today but cooler temperatures are on the way

Wednesday Weather 10-12-22

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Victoria, Texas-: Tonight: Mostly clear skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 68 degrees. Winds: SE 5-10 mph becoming northwest after Midnight.  10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: Sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 93/65 degrees. Winds: N 5-10 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorm mainly before 1 pm.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 65 degrees. Winds: E 5.  10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Extended Forecast: Friday through Thursday:

Friday: Sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 91/68 degrees. Winds: SE 5-10 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorm.

Saturday: Sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 90/69 degrees. Winds: SE 5-10 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorm.

Sunday: Mostly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 89/67 degrees. Winds: SE 10 mph.  A 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorm mainly after 1 pm.

Monday: Partly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 82/62 degrees. Winds: NE 10 mph.  A 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorm.

Tuesday: Cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 72/52 degrees. Winds: NE 15 mph.  A 60% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday: Cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 71/47 degrees. Winds: NE 10 mph.  A 30% chance of scattered showers and AM thunderstorms.

Thursday: Sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 75/52 degrees. Winds: NW 5 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Synopsis: High pressure is keep pleasant conditions in the Crossroads with slight (20 percent) rain chances from atmospheric destabilization from the daytime heating from the sun.  The sun’s heating is trying to produce some pop-up showers but dry air and the high are keeping things at bay.  Dry air will push down with a cold front Thursday morning with a slight chance of showers along the boundary.  Tropical Storm Karl (formerly Julia) is in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and with winds out of the east, the storm should stay cornered in that location.

For the long term, Thursday through Monday, some disturbances on Thursday will move west to east and out of the area while a cold front pushes into South Texas Thursday morning.  The boundary will increase rain chances over the Gulf, will not effect South Texas temperatures too much, but the upper-level winds moving down with the front should keep Tropical Storm Karly trapped down in the southwestern corner of the Gulf and up against coastal Mexico.  Impacts will be rip currents, swells and potential coastal flooding as Karl stays to the south.

High pressure will develop in the Gulf after the weekend, pushing dry air out of Mexico and into South Texas.  This will keep pleasant conditions in the area with above average temperatures.  By Sunday, airflow out of the Gulf (southeast) will start to increase moisture levels.  A storm will move in with a cold front after the weekend bringing rain chances as well as cooler temperatures.  Moisture levels will increase Sunday and into Monday as the storm moves into the area.  Scattered showers with 1-2 inches of rain are possible from Sunday to Monday night.  Winds will increase behind the front which could cause long swells and strong rip currents for Gulf facing beaches.

Tropical Update: Tropical Storm Karl (60mph winds with gradual strengthening in the next few days, moving north at 3 mph, formerly Julia) is in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and with winds out of the north and  east, the storm should stay cornered in that location.  There is a Tropical Storm Watch (means tropical storm conditions can occur in the next 48-hours) for portions of southeastern Mexico.  Heavy rain could cause flash flooding in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains and adjacent coastal areas.  Mudslides are possible for areas with higher terrain.  Tropical storm conditions are possible for Mexico in the watch area starting Thursday.  Swells generated by Karl are expected to effect the Mexican coastline for the next few days.  These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Karl is moving towards the northwest but a gradual turn in this motion should occur towards the west southwest by Wednesday evening.   A turn to the southwest is expected for Thursday morning. Karl will be approaching the coast of Mexico on Thursday.  Gradual strengthening is expected in the next few days with weakening taking place but with gradual weakening by Thursday.  Karl could bring 3-6 inches of rainfall.

Due to Karl, seas will build in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Depending on how much strengthening occurs, seas and surf may then become more intense. Large swells may propagate outward to more of the western and central Gulf of Mexico, where petroleum rigs are located. These swells would then increase the intensity and frequency of rip currents along the Texas coast later this week.

Non-tropical weather features in the western and central U.S. may help to draw the moisture northward and potentially enhance rainfall and thunderstorm activity from southeastern Texas to Louisiana and perhaps Arkansas from Sunday to Tuesday. The non-tropical systems alone could bring heavy enough rain to lead to localized flooding from New Mexico and Texas to Louisiana early next week.

Areas from central and northwestern Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley could use a thorough soaking. Soil conditions range from abnormally dry to exceptional drought conditions.

The storm moving as slow as it is will pull up more than surface water that is in the 80’s temperature wise.  Deeper water 10-20 feet down is in the lower 70’s and would contribute to dissipation of the storm.