A warm weekend with cooler weather coming soon

Saturday Weather 10-15-22

 

Victoria, Texas-: Tonight: Mostly clear skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 71 degrees. Winds: SE 5-10 mph.  10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday: Mostly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 88 degrees. Winds: SE 5-10 mph.  A 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 69 degrees. Winds: SE 5-10.  40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly after 1 am.

Extended Forecast: Monday through Sunday:

Monday: Mostly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 77/59 degrees. Winds: NE 10-15/G20 mph.  A 70% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorm.

Tuesday: Partly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 69/49 degrees. Winds: NE 15-20/G25 mph.  A 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms before 1 am.

Wednesday: Sunny with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 69/48 degrees. Winds: NE 10 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and AM thunderstorms.

Thursday: Sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 76/55 degrees. Winds: SW 5 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Friday: Sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 81/56 degrees. Winds: SW 5 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday: Mostly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 85/64 degrees. Winds: NW 5 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday: Cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 86/64 degrees. Winds: S 10 mph.  A 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Synopsis: The cold front boundary is hanging out in the northern part of the viewing area.  Daytime heating from the sun is bringing some scattered showers to parts of the viewing area as well as strong thunderstorms to San Patricio County near Corpus Christi.  The boundary is weakening as winds out of the north picked up just a little bit.  The drier air will push down into the area vaguely effecting temperatures while humidity levels drop, but moisture levels will begin to increase again on Friday as low-level moisture out of the Gulf (southeast) moves into the area.

For the long term, Saturday through Wednesday, another cold front comes through Monday and Monday night bringing scattered showers as well as cooler temperatures.  Drier conditions should return by Tuesday night.  High pressure in Mexico (to the south) should keep dry conditions from Friday night through Saturday night here in the Crossroads.  Some upward spin could create some showers on Saturday night before the energy/band moves off to the east.

High pressure will push down into South Texas Sunday into Monday while pushing a cold front boundary into the Crossroads on Monday afternoon and Monday night.  Moisture will increase on Sunday into the 1.5″ range and should further increase on Monday with scattered showers (Sunday night to Monday night) in the Crossroads.  Moisture increase, boundary lift and energy from the sun will bring rain to the area.  These isolated to scattered showers should dissipate by Tuesday evening as drier air moves into South Texas.  Parts of the viewing area could see 1-2 inches of rain.

Moisture levels will drop as high pressure moves in and keeps South Texas dry pretty much from Wednesday through the weekend.  Temperatures will drop with the Sunday front as highs drop into the 70’s and a few nights drop into the 40’s.

Tropical Update: Heavy rainfall associated with Karl could cause flash flooding in higher elevations of Mexico.  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin with a portion of the warning area in Southern Mexico by late Friday.  Heavy rainfall with totals from 3-7 inches while other locations could be drenched by 12 inches of rain from Friday into Sunday morning.