A scattered shower or two on Monday before the area dry’s off for a few days

Monday Weather 9-19-22

 

 

Victoria, Texas-: Tonight: Mostly clear skies with light winds while temperatures stay above average.  Low: 74 degrees. Winds: SE 5-10 mph becoming light after Midnight.  10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms before 8 pm.  Patchy fog after 4 am.

Tuesday: Sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 93 degrees. Winds: SE 5-10 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday Night: Clear skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 71 degrees. Winds: SE 5-10 mph.  10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Extended Forecast: Wednesday through Tuesday:

Wednesday: Sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 94/71 degrees. Winds: N 5-10 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: Sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 95/72 degrees. Winds: SE 5-10 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Friday: Sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay above average.  High: 95/72 degrees. Winds: E 10 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday: Sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 92/73 degrees. Winds: SE 10 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday: Mostly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 92/73 degrees. Winds: SE 10 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Monday: Partly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 93/70 degrees. Winds: NE 10 mph.  A 40% chance of scattered showers and AM thunderstorms.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 93/71 degrees. Winds: NE 10 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Synopsis: Rain showers on Sunday tapered off as the sun went down.  High pressure helped to slow rain down as well but the high moved slightly off to the north Sunday night into Monday morning.  This opened the door for some disturbances to move west across South Texas on Monday.   Moisture levels were only around 1.7 inches but the disturbance created enough lift to spread isolated and scattered showers and some thunderstorms to the Crossroads.  The rain started over the Gulf but moved inland with the Seabreeze.  Rain chances stayed near 30 percent due to the dry nature of the atmosphere.  The rain should taper off early this evening as high-pressure starts moving closer to the area.

For the long term, Tuesday through Saturday, the high-pressure should influence South Texas Tuesday through Thursday before moving off to the east Friday as a trough moves west across deep South Texas at the end of the week.  Tuesday will be dry but cannot rule out a shower or two due to upward spin in the atmosphere combined with daytime heating from the sun.  The area will be mildly unstable but again high-pressure will do its best to stifle rain development on Tuesday.

High-pressure will strengthen as well as move further south and deeper into Texas allowing for even drier conditions on Wednesday and Thursday.  The lower moisture levels near 1.0 inch will allow for more sunshine and warmer temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday.  High pressure will move off to the north and the northeast on Friday and Saturday as a low-pressure storm moves east to west across deep South Texas and Mexico. This will allow for rain chances for the end of the work week and into the weekend as the disturbance combines with the energy from the suns daytime heating.    From Port A and south, the area could see some minor coastal flooding during high tide as airflow moves out of the northeast and the east.


Tropical Update: Hurricane Fiona is moving west at 9 mph with 90 mph winds.  Fiona will bring heavy rains to Puerto Rico and Dominica through Monday.  Fiona will continue to strengthen after moving away from Puerto Rico and will bring hurricane conditions to the Turks and Caicos Islands on Tuesday.  By late Monday and early Tuesday, the southeastern Bahamas will start to feel tropical storm force conditions. The storm could become a Major Category 3 Storm on the way to the Bahamas on Tuesday.  The hurricane could run into Bermuda between Thursday and Friday.

A disturbance in the Central Tropical Atlantic is bringing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Further development of this system is in the 30 percent range the next couple of days but conditions will be less conducive later in the week when the feature moves northward into cooler water in the central tropical Atlantic.

A disturbance several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is bringing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Some gradual development of this storm is possible in the next few days when the feature moves into the Windward Islands later in the week and then moves into the eastern Caribbean Sea over the weekend.  The chance of strengthening in the next 48-hours is around 10 percent while over the next 5-days thre is a 20 percent chance of further development.