A rainy Monday with cooler air on the way

Monday Weather 10-17-22

 

Victoria, Texas-: Tonight: Mostly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 56 degrees. Winds: NE 15/G20.  30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly before 4 am.

Tuesday: Partly sunny skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 67 degrees. Winds: NE 15/G20 mph.  A 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly before 2 pm.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 46 degrees. Winds: NE 10-15.  10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Extended Forecast: Wednesday through Tuesday:

Wednesday: Sunny with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 69/48 degrees. Winds: NE 5-10 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: Sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 79/55 degrees. Winds: SW 5 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Friday: Sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 83/61 degrees. Winds: SW 10 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday: Sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 84/67 degrees. Winds: S 15 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday: Mostly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 85/71 degrees. Winds: SE 15 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Monday: Mostly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 88/67 degrees. Winds: S 10 mph.  A 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average.  High: 86/65 degrees. Winds: S 10 mph.  A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Synopsis: High pressure moves off while a cold front boundary in south central Texas is pushing into South Texas.  Rain showers began Sunday afternoon as moisture moves down from the north as well as from up out of the Gulf.  The boundary should move through the area Monday morning and will head out into the Gulf  by the late afternoon early evening hours.  Moisture and storms are pushing in from Mexico (through the Rio Grande) which could fire up some thunderstorms in the Crossroads sometime after Midnight on Monday.   This movement will bring rain showers (1-3″ between Sunday night and Tuesday afternoon) as well as cooler air shuffling down into the Crossroads Monday through Wednesday.  Fast upper-level winds (35-40 mph) combined with daytime heating from the sun and decent moisture levels (2″) could promote excessive rainfall rates and keep rainfall active until Tuesday when the front pushes further away from the area.  Most showers will take place to the south of the viewing area as well as over the open water.

For the long term, Tuesday through Saturday, the coolest temperatures of the season are expected behind the cold front while breezy winds (strongest over the islands and water) move in from the north as high pressure pushes back into South Texas.  Rain chances will taper off from north to south on Tuesday as cooler, dry, sinking air moves down into South Texas.  Some lingering showers are possible Tuesday afternoon due to the upper-level fast-moving winds being present.  Move forward through the work week (and weekend) and temperatures will start to warm with lots of sunshine while moisture moves up out of the Gulf (southeast). Rip currents could be on the high side during the week with slight chances of coastal flooding during high tide.

 

Tropical Update: Storm activity is not expected over the next 48-hours.