Pleasant conditions while the tropics stay active

Tuesday Weather 10-4-22

 

Victoria, Texas-: Tonight: Mostly clear skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 63 degrees. Winds: SE 5 mph.  10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 88/65 degrees. Winds: E 5 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorm.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  Low: 64 degrees. Winds: E 5.  10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Extended Forecast: Thursday through Wednesday:

Thursday: Mostly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 89/66 degrees. Winds: E 5 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorm.

Friday: Partly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 89/67 degrees. Winds: NE 5 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorm.

Saturday: Partly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 87/64 degrees. Winds: NE 10 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday: Mostly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 85/64 degrees. Winds: E 10 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Monday: Sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 86/61 degrees. Winds: E 10 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 89/62 degrees. Winds: SE 10 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorm.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average.  High: 89/63 degrees. Winds: SE 10 mph.  A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorm.

Synopsis: The remnants of tropical storm Orlene  moving through the west coast of Mexico combined with some small disturbances have thrown moisture into the Crossroads allowing for mostly cloudy conditions.  The mid level clouds will burn off on Tuesday from some sunshine and high level cirrus clouds should scatter opening up the area to mostly  sunny conditions. Any rain that would fall more than likely would evaporate before reaching the ground.  Some of the dryoff and cloud dissipation will come from high pressure strengthening over the area.  High pressure will allow for more sunshine on Wednesday thus allowing for warmer temperatures.

For the long term, Wednesday through Monday, low-pressure storms will be over the northwest Mexico as well as over the northern United States.  High pressure will be over much of the Gulf of Mexico.  A few disturbances will push in from the southeast and the northeast that could bring a few showers to the Crossroads.  Moisture levels will remain below average but the area will endure a more humid feeling this week compared to last week as low-level moisture pushes in from the Gulf.

High-pressure moving down from the north (northwest) will push a cold front into the Crossroads possibly moving through the area on Saturday morning (early before 7 am).

Tropical Update:  Feature #1: A tropical wave a few hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Slow development is possible during the next several days while the wave moves generally westward at 15-20 mph reaching the Windward Islands and the eastern Caribbean sea by midweek and the western Caribbean over the weekend.  Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system.  Formation chances through 48-hours are low (20 percent), and through 5 days chances are just a tad better (30 percent).

Feature #2: Showers and thunderstorms have increased with the weather feature a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression (1] Open Wave, 2] Disturbance, 3] Depression, 4] Tropical Storm, 5] Hurricane) is likely to form in a day or two.  The feature is now a tropical depression (#12).  Further development should become less likely late this week due to increasing upper-level winds.  The system is forecast to move generally northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.  Formation chances through 48-hours are high (70 percent), and through 5 days chances are even better (80 percent).